League B - 6 · 17 November 2026, 19:45 UTC

Ukraine vs Georgia UEFA Nations League prediction

Kosicka futbalova arena, Kosice

Our model says: Ukraine 1–0 Georgia

The model makes it 42% Ukraine, 34% draw, 24% Georgia — fair odds of 2.38, 2.94 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Ukraine 1.06, Georgia 0.68.

Both teams to score: 33%. Over 2.5 goals: 25%, under 2.5: 75%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.

Edge to Ukraine: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Ukraine's rating is built from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking; Georgia's from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking.

Key facts

  • Ukraine are 3rd on 4 points from 5 games; Georgia are bottom on 2 points from 5 games — UEFA Nations League, League B.
  • Ukraine are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Northern Ireland.
  • Georgia have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Hungary.
  • Last 3 meetings: Ukraine 1 win to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 28 September 2026, ended Georgia 0–0 Ukraine.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Ukraine vs Georgia

33%
Both teams to score
25%
Over 2.5 goals
75%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Ukraine win Draw Georgia win
  1. 0–018%
  2. 1–018%
  3. 1–113%
  4. 0–111%
  5. 2–010%
  6. 2–17%
  7. 1–24%

Scores read Ukraine first; the other scorelines share the remaining 19%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Ukraine at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Ukraine vs Georgia

Ukraine

UEFA Nations League

  • L0-1away to Northern Ireland14 November 2026
  • L1-2Hungary5 October 2026
  • L0-3Northern Ireland2 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Georgia28 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Hungary25 September 2026

Georgia

UEFA Nations League

  • L0-2Hungary14 November 2026
  • D0-0away to Northern Ireland5 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Hungary2 October 2026
  • D0-0Ukraine28 September 2026
  • L0-1Northern Ireland25 September 2026

What these results say

  • Ukraine failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Georgia did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Georgia failed to score in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Georgia had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Ukraine511326-44
4Georgia502304-42

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Ukraine vs Georgia

  • 28 September 2026Georgia 0–0 UkraineUEFA Nations League
  • 16 November 2024Georgia 1–1 UkraineUEFA Nations League
  • 11 October 2024Ukraine 1–0 GeorgiaUEFA Nations League

How the call on Ukraine v Georgia has moved

First published on 3 Nov at 40% / 34% / 26% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 42% / 34% / 24%: the biggest move is Ukraine's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Ukraine win42%▲ +2
  2. Draw34%=
  3. Georgia win24%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Ukraine Georgia
0.97 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.67
0.81 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 0.81
1.06 Model expected goals (this match) 0.68

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Ukraine the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Ukraine against 0.68 for Georgia. Ukraine's attack/defence rating is 0.97/0.81 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/0.81 for Georgia.

How national teams are rated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted, and not yet calibrated: too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so this prediction rests on less evidence than our club predictions. How the model works.

How the model reaches 42% for Ukraine to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Ukraine to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, the level of the two sides takes away 4 points, Ukraine's ratings add 5 points and Georgia's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 42%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage38%+2
  3. Both sides at this match's level34%−4
  4. Ukraine's ratings39%+5
  5. Georgia's ratings42%+3

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.