League A - 6 · 17 November 2026, 19:45 UTC

Wales vs Portugal UEFA Nations League prediction

Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff

Our model says: Wales 0–1 Portugal

The model makes it 21% Wales, 27% draw, 52% Portugal — fair odds of 4.76, 3.70 and 1.92.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (12%).

Expected goals: Wales 0.89, Portugal 1.68.

Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.

One-sided: Portugal are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Wales's rating is built from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking; Portugal's from its last 5 matches.

Key facts

  • Wales are bottom on 3 points from 5 games; Portugal are top on 12 points from 5 games — UEFA Nations League, League A.
  • Wales have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Norway.
  • Portugal have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat at home to Denmark.
  • Last 2 meetings: Portugal 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 24 September 2026, ended Portugal 1–0 Wales.

More Nations League predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Wales vs Portugal

49%
Both teams to score
47%
Over 2.5 goals
53%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Wales win Draw Portugal win
  1. 0–112%
  2. 1–112%
  3. 0–211%
  4. 1–210%
  5. 0–08%
  6. 1–06%
  7. 0–36%

Scores read Wales first; the other scorelines share the remaining 35%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Portugal at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Wales vs Portugal

Wales

UEFA Nations League

  • L1-3away to Norway14 November 2026
  • L0-1Denmark4 October 2026
  • W2-1Norway1 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Denmark27 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Portugal24 September 2026

Portugal

UEFA Nations League

  • L1-4Denmark14 November 2026
  • W2-1Norway4 October 2026
  • W4-2away to Denmark1 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Norway27 September 2026
  • W1-0Wales24 September 2026

What these results say

  • Wales conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Wales failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Portugal scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Portugal won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Portugal conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Wales510438-53
1Portugal5401108+212

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Wales vs Portugal

  • 24 September 2026Portugal 1–0 WalesUEFA Nations League
  • 6 July 2016Portugal 2–0 WalesEuro Championship

Leading scorers: Wales and Portugal

Wales

No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.

Portugal

GoalsAssists

  • João Félix31
  • Gonçalo Ramos31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

How the call on Wales v Portugal has moved

First published on 3 Nov at 22% / 28% / 50% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 21% / 27% / 52%: the biggest move is Portugal's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Wales win21%▼ −1
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. Portugal win52%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Wales Portugal
0.94 Attack strength (vs league average) 1.53
0.88 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 0.7
0.89 Model expected goals (this match) 1.68

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Portugal the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Wales against 1.68 for Portugal. Wales's attack/defence rating is 0.94/0.88 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.53/0.7 for Portugal.

How national teams are rated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted, and not yet calibrated: too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so this prediction rests on less evidence than our club predictions. How the model works.

How the model reaches 52% for Portugal to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Portugal to win. Then home advantage takes away 2 points, Wales's ratings add 8 points and Portugal's ratings add 10 points, which lands on the published 52%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage34%−2
  3. Wales's ratings42%+8
  4. Portugal's ratings52%+10

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.