League B - 6 · 17 November 2026, 19:45 UTC

Hungary vs Northern Ireland UEFA Nations League prediction

Puskás Aréna, Budapest

Our model says: Hungary 1–0 Northern Ireland

The model makes it 41% Hungary, 33% draw, 26% Northern Ireland — fair odds of 2.44, 3.03 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Hungary 1.06, Northern Ireland 0.74.

Both teams to score: 35%. Over 2.5 goals: 27%, under 2.5: 73%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.

Edge to Hungary: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Hungary's rating is built from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking; Northern Ireland's from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking.

Key facts

  • Hungary are 2nd on 10 points from 5 games; Northern Ireland are top on 11 points from 5 games — UEFA Nations League, League B.
  • Hungary are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Georgia.
  • Northern Ireland are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 1-0 win at home to Ukraine.
  • Last 2 meetings: Hungary 1 win to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 28 September 2026, ended Northern Ireland 0–0 Hungary.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Hungary vs Northern Ireland

35%
Both teams to score
27%
Over 2.5 goals
73%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Hungary win Draw Northern Ireland win
  1. 0–017%
  2. 1–017%
  3. 1–114%
  4. 0–112%
  5. 2–09%
  6. 2–17%
  7. 1–25%

Scores read Hungary first; the other scorelines share the remaining 19%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Hungary at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Hungary vs Northern Ireland

Hungary

UEFA Nations League

  • W2-0away to Georgia14 November 2026
  • W2-1away to Ukraine5 October 2026
  • W1-0Georgia2 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Northern Ireland28 September 2026
  • L0-1Ukraine25 September 2026

Northern Ireland

UEFA Nations League

  • W1-0Ukraine14 November 2026
  • D0-0Georgia5 October 2026
  • W3-0away to Ukraine2 October 2026
  • D0-0Hungary28 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Georgia25 September 2026

What these results say

  • 4 of these 5 matches for Hungary had two goals or fewer.
  • Northern Ireland went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Northern Ireland kept a clean sheet in every one of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Northern Ireland had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Hungary531152+310
1Northern Ireland532050+511

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Hungary vs Northern Ireland

  • 28 September 2026Northern Ireland 0–0 HungaryUEFA Nations League
  • 29 March 2022Northern Ireland 0–1 HungaryFriendlies
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Hungary Northern Ireland
1.05 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.88
0.67 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 0.75
1.06 Model expected goals (this match) 0.74

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Hungary the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Hungary against 0.74 for Northern Ireland. Hungary's attack/defence rating is 1.05/0.67 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.88/0.75 for Northern Ireland.

How national teams are rated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted, and not yet calibrated: too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so this prediction rests on less evidence than our club predictions. How the model works.

How the model reaches 41% for Hungary to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Hungary to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, the level of the two sides takes away 3 points, Hungary's ratings add 3 points and Northern Ireland's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 41%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage38%+2
  3. Both sides at this match's level35%−3
  4. Hungary's ratings38%+3
  5. Northern Ireland's ratings41%+3

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.