Comerciantes Unidos vs Cienciano Primera División prediction & result
Final score: Comerciantes Unidos 3-1 Cienciano.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Comerciantes Unidos, 27% draw, 34% Cienciano — fair odds of 2.56, 3.70 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Comerciantes Unidos at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Comerciantes Unidos vs Cienciano
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 17Matías CordovaG
- 20J. ParodiD
- 40F. AlcedoD
- 6J. RodriguezD
- 19D. LinoD
- 18A. RodríguezM
- 54Y. GameroM
- 11J. HerreraM
- 25Rodrigo Gary Vilca BetettaM
- 32J. SánchezM
- 9M. SenF
- 14Thiago SalinasM
- 8W. AyovíF
- 10M. CarpioM
- 99José Pablo Alejandro Charún ValdezG
- 15A. CossioD
- 30P. GuzmánD
- 50J. OlivaresF
- 28O. PintoM
- 13M. PérezF
- 1G. FalcónG
- 13C. NúñezD
- 4M. AmondarainD
- 3K. BecerraD
- 16M. MartinichD
- 88G. BarretoM
- 5S. AriasM
- 11N. BandieraM
- 22C. CabelloM
- 7C. SouzaM
- 19M. SuccarF
- 27A. YoveraD
- 17R. SandovalF
- 25R. SalazarD
- 31Í. EspinozaG
- 99Nadhir ColungaF
- 14S. CaveroD
- 39H. CaparóM
- 8G. AguirreM
- 26R. AguilarD
Form going into Comerciantes Unidos vs Cienciano
Comerciantes Unidos
Primera División
- L2-4away to Sporting Cristal18 October 2026
Cienciano
Primera División
- W1-0UTC Cajamarca18 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Peru Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Comerciantes Unidos | 33 | 8 | 13 | 12 | 44 | 47 | -3 | 37 |
| 7 | Cienciano | 33 | 15 | 5 | 13 | 54 | 46 | +8 | 50 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Comerciantes Unidos vs Cienciano
- 2 May 2026Cienciano 1–0 Comerciantes UnidosPrimera División
- 8 August 2025Comerciantes Unidos 1–1 CiencianoPrimera División
- 10 March 2025Cienciano 3–2 Comerciantes UnidosPrimera División
- 13 July 2024Comerciantes Unidos 1–2 CiencianoPrimera División
- 28 January 2024Cienciano 1–0 Comerciantes UnidosPrimera División
- 15 September 2019Comerciantes Unidos 2–1 CiencianoSegunda División
Leading scorers: Comerciantes Unidos and Cienciano
Comerciantes Unidos
GoalsAssists
- M. Sen113
Cienciano
GoalsAssists
- C. Garcés184
- A. Hohberg125
- N. Bandiera91
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Comerciantes Unidos beat Cienciano 3–1. The model had made a win for Comerciantes Unidos its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Jhon Sánchez 31' for Comerciantes Unidos, Matias Succar 50' for Cienciano, Rodrigo Vilca 90+1' for Comerciantes Unidos, Juan Rodríguez 90+6' for Comerciantes Unidos. On expected goals it finished 2.45–0.99.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.