1 November 2026, 18:00 UTC

Cobresal vs Everton de Vina Primera División prediction & result

Estadio El Cobre, El Salvador
Referee: Rodrigo Carvajal Molina
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Cobresal 2-2 Everton de Vina.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Cobresal, 26% draw, 37% Everton de Vina — fair odds of 2.70, 3.85 and 2.70.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Cobresal at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Cobresal99%Draw1%Everton de Vina0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Christian Moreno
32'
Leroy Janpol Morales Napa
35'
56'
🔁Cristian Palaciosout: Nicolás Baeza
🔁Cesar Yanisout: Renato Huerta
56'
🔁Leroy Janpol Morales Napaout: Bryan Carvallo
56'
🔁Franco Friasout: Martín Espinoza
56'
⚽Juan Fuentesassist: José Tiznado
59'
63'
Joaquin Moya
⚽Julián Brea (pen)
72'
76'
🔁Joaquin Moyaout: Bastián Ismael Tapia Gomes
76'
🔁Braian Aaron Martínezout: Amaro Leon
86'
🔁Emiliano Ramosout: Cristopher Barrera
🔁Julián Breaout: Benjamín Valenzuela
86'
86'
🔁Gustavo Charrupiout: Vicente Vega
Juan Fuentes
88'
90+5'
⚽Hugo Magallanesassist: Nicolás Baeza
90+6'
⚽Josué Miguel Nehemías Ovalle Aranda

Match stats — Cobresal vs Everton de Vina

54%Possession46%
14Shots16
8On target8
5Corners5
1.83xG1.59

Goals against chances

Cobresal2 from 1.83 xGabout what the chances were worth
Everton de Vina2 from 1.59 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Cobresal 4-2-3-1
  • 12J. SantanderG
  • 23G. PachecoD
  • 20J. TiznadoD
  • 18C. MorenoD
  • 15A. CastilloD
  • 17J. FuentesM
  • 38F. VillagránM
  • 11J. BreaM
  • 7C. YanisM
  • 39L. MoralesM
  • 32F. FríasF
Substitutes
  • 22A. AstudilloD
  • 16F. BechtholdtD
  • 43V. CamposD
  • 10B. CarvalloM
  • 14R. HuertaF
  • 6E. ValenciaM
  • 13Benjamin ValenzuelaM
  • 36M. OlguinG
  • 37Martin EspinozaF
Coach: G. Huerta
Everton de Vina 4-3-3
  • 1I. GonzálezG
  • 2Ó. OpazoD
  • 4H. MagallanesD
  • 24D. OyarzúnD
  • 11E. RamosD
  • 21B. BerríosM
  • 7J. MoyaM
  • 6G. CharrupíM
  • 20J. OvalleF
  • 30C. PalaciosF
  • 29B. MartínezF
Substitutes
  • 19V. VegaD
  • 28A. LeonM
  • 25E. KirkmanG
  • 37V. VidalD
  • 5R. GonzálezD
  • 17C. BarreraF
  • 14N. BaezaD
  • 18Jhonny Jesús Gómez OchoaF
  • 39Bastián Ismael Tapia GomesF
Coach: W. Ribonetto

Form going into Cobresal vs Everton de Vina

Cobresal

Primera División

  • D1-1away to O'Higgins24 October 2026
  • D1-1Universidad de Concepcion10 October 2026
  • W3-2Coquimbo Unido12 September 2026

Everton de Vina

Primera División

  • L1-4away to Universidad de Chile26 October 2026
  • W3-2Deportes La Serena11 October 2026
  • W3-1away to Nublense12 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Chile Primera División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Cobresal2776143950-1127
5Everton de Vina2711794335+840

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cobresal vs Everton de Vina

  • 26 April 2026Everton de Vina 3–1 CobresalPrimera División
  • 9 November 2025Cobresal 1–2 Everton de VinaPrimera División
  • 24 May 2025Everton de Vina 2–2 CobresalPrimera División
  • 5 October 2024Cobresal 2–1 Everton de VinaPrimera División
  • 12 May 2024Everton de Vina 3–3 CobresalPrimera División
  • 28 August 2023Everton de Vina 2–2 CobresalPrimera División

Leading scorers: Cobresal and Everton de Vina

Cobresal

GoalsAssists

  • S. Pino81
  • J. Brea71

Everton de Vina

GoalsAssists

  • A. Medina123

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Cobresal and Everton de Vina drew 2–2. The goals: Juan Fuentes 59' for Cobresal, Julián Brea (penalty) 72' for Cobresal, Hugo Magallanes 90+5' for Everton de Vina, Josué Miguel Nehemías Ovalle Aranda 90+6' for Everton de Vina. On expected goals it finished 1.83–1.59.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Cobresal a 72.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 57.8% after a win, 76.2% after a draw, 85.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 76.2%, 3.8 points higher than before the match.

For Everton de Vina the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 44.6% going in: 59.4% after a win, 40.7% after a draw, 30.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 40.7%, 3.9 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Primera División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Cobresal v Everton de Vina has moved

First published on 18 Oct at 34% / 26% / 40% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 37% / 26% / 37%: the biggest move is Cobresal's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Cobresal win37%▲ +3
  2. Draw26%=
  3. Everton de Vina win37%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.