North Macedonia
vs
Slovenia
UEFA Nations League prediction
Our model says: North Macedonia 0–1 Slovenia
The model makes it 18% North Macedonia, 28% draw, 54% Slovenia — fair odds of 5.56, 3.57 and 1.85.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (17%).
Expected goals: North Macedonia 0.65, Slovenia 1.52.
Both teams to score: 38%. Over 2.5 goals: 37%, under 2.5: 63%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
One-sided: Slovenia are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- North Macedonia are bottom on 0 points from 5 games; Slovenia are 2nd on 8 points from 5 games — UEFA Nations League, League B.
- North Macedonia have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Scotland.
- Slovenia have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Switzerland.
- Last 4 meetings: level at 1 win each, 2 draws; the most recent, 29 September 2026, ended Slovenia 2–0 North Macedonia.
More Nations League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: North Macedonia vs Slovenia
Has the model earned this number?
Slovenia at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into North Macedonia vs Slovenia
North Macedonia
UEFA Nations League
- L1-2away to Scotland13 November 2026
- L0-3away to Switzerland6 October 2026
- L0-2Scotland3 October 2026
- L0-2away to Slovenia29 September 2026
- L0-3Switzerland26 September 2026
Slovenia
UEFA Nations League
- D0-0Switzerland13 November 2026
- W2-1away to Scotland6 October 2026
- L1-2away to Switzerland3 October 2026
- W2-0North Macedonia29 September 2026
- D0-0Scotland26 September 2026
What these results say
- North Macedonia did not win any of these 5 matches.
- North Macedonia conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- North Macedonia failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | North Macedonia | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 12 | -11 | 0 |
| 2 | Slovenia | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: North Macedonia vs Slovenia
- 29 September 2026Slovenia 2–0 North MacedoniaUEFA Nations League
- 1 June 2021North Macedonia 1–1 SloveniaFriendlies
- 10 October 2019North Macedonia 2–1 SloveniaEuro Championship
- 24 March 2019Slovenia 1–1 North MacedoniaEuro Championship
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Slovenia the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.65 expected goals for North Macedonia against 1.52 for Slovenia. North Macedonia's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.24 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.98/0.76 for Slovenia.
How national teams are rated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted, and not yet calibrated: too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so this prediction rests on less evidence than our club predictions. How the model works.
How the model reaches 54% for Slovenia to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Slovenia to win. Then home advantage takes away 2 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, North Macedonia's ratings add 11 points and Slovenia's ratings add 11 points, which lands on the published 54%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage34%−2
- Both sides at this match's level32%−2
- North Macedonia's ratings43%+11
- Slovenia's ratings54%+11
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent internationals, friendlies included, before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.