Greece
vs
Serbia
UEFA Nations League prediction
Our model says: Greece 1–0 Serbia
The model makes it 41% Greece, 28% draw, 31% Serbia — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Greece 1.42, Serbia 1.17.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Greece's rating is built from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking; Serbia's from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking.
Key facts
- Greece are 2nd on 8 points from 5 games; Serbia are bottom on 0 points from 5 games — UEFA Nations League, League A.
- Greece are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-7 defeat away to Netherlands.
- Serbia have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Germany.
More Nations League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Greece vs Serbia
Has the model earned this number?
Greece at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Greece vs Serbia
Greece
UEFA Nations League
- L0-7away to Netherlands13 November 2026
- D0-0Germany4 October 2026
- D2-2Netherlands1 October 2026
- W1-0away to Germany27 September 2026
- W2-1away to Serbia24 September 2026
Serbia
UEFA Nations League
- L1-3Germany13 November 2026
- L1-2away to Netherlands4 October 2026
- L0-2away to Germany1 October 2026
- L1-2Netherlands27 September 2026
- L1-2Greece24 September 2026
What these results say
- Serbia did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Serbia conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Serbia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Greece | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 8 |
| 4 | Serbia | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Greece vs Serbia
- 24 September 2026Serbia 1–2 GreeceUEFA Nations League
How the call on Greece v Serbia has moved
First published on 2 Nov at 51% / 27% / 22% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 41% / 28% / 31%: the biggest move is Greece's chance of winning, down 10 points.
- Greece win41%▼ −10
- Draw28%▲ +1
- Serbia win31%▲ +9
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Greece the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Greece against 1.17 for Serbia. Greece's attack/defence rating is 0.99/0.92 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.02/1.06 for Serbia.
How national teams are rated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted, and not yet calibrated: too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so this prediction rests on less evidence than our club predictions. How the model works.
How the model reaches 41% for Greece to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Greece to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Greece's ratings add 2 points and Serbia's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage38%+2
- Both sides at this match's level37%−1
- Greece's ratings39%+2
- Serbia's ratings41%+2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent internationals, friendlies included, before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.