Vitória SC vs Maritimo Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Vitória SC 5-0 Maritimo.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Vitória SC, 29% draw, 33% Maritimo — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
All Primeira Liga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Vitória SC at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Vitória SC vs Maritimo
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 98Lucas FurtadoG
- 23T. StrataD
- 21T. BorevkovićD
- 5A. SidibéD
- 13João MendesD
- 8Gonçalo NogueiraM
- 16BeniM
- 7O. CamaraM
- 20SamuM
- 11GustavoM
- 9A. JakupovicF
- 10AlanM
- 48O. ZychG
- 4Óscar RivasD
- 29V. OuotroF
- 24A. NdoyeF
- 15Y. MosqueraD
- 19V. AnderssonM
- 44L. DoucetM
- 2Miguel MagaD
- 30Fran VieitesG
- 2Igor JuliãoD
- 44Romain CorreiaD
- 22G. SzalaiD
- 23Paulo HenriqueD
- 6Rodrigo AndradeM
- 14Raphael GuzzoM
- 15Tomás TavaresM
- 8M. DominguezM
- 10Martín TejónM
- 17Adrián ButzkeF
- 21I. AlaniM
- 1Gonçalo TabuaçoG
- 27S. BambaF
- 12M. BassouaminaF
- 11M. DiouriF
- 4Rafael FernandesD
- 35B. LimbombeF
- 5Nilton VarelaD
- 3N. OgbetaD
Form going into Vitória SC vs Maritimo
Vitória SC
Primeira Liga
- L0-2away to Benfica11 October 2026
- D1-1Moreirense20 September 2026
Maritimo
Primeira Liga
- L1-2FC Porto10 October 2026
- D1-1away to GIL Vicente19 September 2026
- L1-3away to Moreirense14 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Vitória SC | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 9 |
| 15 | Maritimo | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Maritimo vs Vitória SC
Maritimo and Vitória SC have met 7 times in the records we hold, Vitória SC has won 6 of them to Maritimo's 0, with 1 drawn.
The record
Vitória SC won the last one 5–0 on 23 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 12 |
| Vitória SC | 6 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 2 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 14 goals, an average of 2.00 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 23 Oct 2026
Primeira LigaVitória SC 5–0 Maritimo - 29 Apr 2023
Primeira LigaMaritimo 1–2 Vitória SC - 13 Nov 2022
Primeira LigaVitória SC 1–0 Maritimo - 13 Mar 2022
Primeira LigaMaritimo 0–1 Vitória SC - 22 Oct 2021
Primeira LigaVitória SC 2–1 Maritimo - 16 May 2021
Primeira LigaMaritimo 0–0 Vitória SC - 31 Jan 2021
Primeira LigaVitória SC 1–0 Maritimo
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Vitória SC's attack rates 11% above Maritimo's, and Vitória SC concede 33% fewer than Maritimo. That gives Vitória SC the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Maritimo | 0.75 | 1.52 |
| Vitória SC | 0.83 | 1.02 |
The result against the call
Vitória SC beat Maritimo 5–0. The model had made a win for Vitória SC its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Arnel Jakupović 38' for Vitória SC, Paulo Henrique (own goal) 48' for Vitória SC, Oumar Camara 60' for Vitória SC, Arnel Jakupović 76' for Vitória SC, Yeimar Mosquera 90' for Vitória SC. On expected goals it finished 1.82–0.54.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Vitória SC a 30.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 24.9% after a win, 31.2% after a draw, 35.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 24.9%, 5.5 points lower than before the match.
For Maritimo the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 12.8% going in: 8.1% after a win, 12.3% after a draw, 16.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 16.1%, 3.3 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Primeira Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Vitória SC v Maritimo has moved
First published on 9 Oct at 40% / 29% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 38% / 29% / 33%: the biggest move is Vitória SC's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Vitória SC win38%▼ −2
- Draw29%=
- Maritimo win33%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.