25 October 2026, 15:30 UTC

FC Porto B vs União de Leiria Segunda Liga prediction & result

Estadio Luis Filipe Menezes, Vila Nova de Gaia
Referee: Luis Carlos Mateus Filipe
Full time1 – 1

Final score: FC Porto B 1-1 União de Leiria.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% FC Porto B, 24% draw, 28% União de Leiria — fair odds of 2.08, 4.17 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Porto B at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Porto B96%Draw4%União de Leiria0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Joao·Teixeiraout: Tiago Gonçalves da Silva
18'
⚽Kauê Rodrigues Pessanha (pen)
25'
34'
Jose Pedro Barros Goncalves
42'
Tharlley Oliveira Da Silva
46'
🔁Tharlley Oliveira Da Silvaout: Kouassi Eboue
🔁Duarte Cunhaout: André Miranda
46'
🔁Yoan Pereiraout: Martim cunha
69'
🔁Eduardo Ferreiraout: Mame Alassane Niang
69'
70'
🔁Pablo Fernandezout: Diogo Martins
70'
🔁Juan Muñozout: Jair silva da goncalves
74'
🔁jaiminhoout: José Nabil Ondo Onva Adjugu
74'
🔁Hugo Masakiout: Marc Baró
76'
Ibrahima Kalil·Guirassy
Kauê Rodrigues Pessanha
80'
🔁Kauê Rodrigues Pessanhaout: Gonçalo Lemos Oliveira
81'
Mame Alassane Niang
84'
Dinis
90'
90+2'
José Nabil Ondo Onva Adjugu
90+6'
⚽Jair silva da goncalves (pen)
90+9'
⚽Jair silva da goncalves (pen)

Match stats — FC Porto B vs União de Leiria

32%Possession68%
11Shots16
2On target5
7Corners9

Line-ups

FC Porto B 4-2-3-1
  • 50J. AfonsoG
  • 76DinisD
  • 64Luís GomesD
  • 93Tiago FerreiraD
  • 55Y. PereiraD
  • 92João Pedro Moreira TeixeiraM
  • 56KauêM
  • 97Gabriel VeronF
  • 89Mateus MideF
  • 57Duarte CunhaF
  • 53E. FerreiraF
Substitutes
  • 72André MirandaF
  • 54António RibeiroD
  • 2Hjalte FroholdtD
  • 84Martim CunhaD
  • 70Eirik GranaasM
  • 82Gonçalo Lemos OliveiraM
  • 47Cardoso VarelaF
  • 41G. SilvaG
  • 91Gonçalo RibeiroG
Coach: João Brandão
União de Leiria 4-4-2
  • 99J. OdehnalG
  • 68MagaD
  • 44MarceloD
  • 16Zé PedroD
  • 70H. MasakiF
  • 21JaimeF
  • 98IbrahimaM
  • 18Tharlley Oliveira Da SilvaM
  • 17Pablo FernándezM
  • 29D. LoppyF
  • 9Juan MuñozF
Substitutes
  • 79Pedro OliveiraF
  • 80Christian JoelG
  • 3Marc BaróD
  • 11Jair da SilvaF
  • 7Jose AdjuguF
  • 88Diogo MartinsM
  • 25Diogo AmadoM
  • 8RekoM
  • 6E. KouassiM
Coach: Fábio Pereira

Form going into FC Porto B vs União de Leiria

FC Porto B

Segunda Liga

  • W2-1away to Leixoes10 October 2026
  • D2-2Vizela14 September 2026

União de Leiria

Segunda Liga

  • L0-2Academica11 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Amarante13 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16FC Porto B10226818-108
5União de Leiria105231613+317

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Porto B vs União de Leiria

  • 15 February 2026União de Leiria 2–2 FC Porto BSegunda Liga
  • 14 September 2025FC Porto B 1–2 União de LeiriaSegunda Liga
  • 9 February 2025União de Leiria 0–0 FC Porto BSegunda Liga
  • 1 September 2024FC Porto B 1–1 União de LeiriaSegunda Liga
  • 3 February 2024União de Leiria 1–1 FC Porto BSegunda Liga
  • 27 August 2023FC Porto B 2–1 União de LeiriaSegunda Liga

The result against the call

FC Porto B and União de Leiria drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Porto B at 48% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Kauê Rodrigues Pessanha (penalty) 25' for FC Porto B, Jair silva da goncalves (penalty) 90+9' for União de Leiria.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC Porto B a 11.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 8.6% after a win, 12.1% after a draw, 15.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 12.1%, 0.6 points higher than before the match.

For União de Leiria the question was the chance to finish in the top three, 9.3% going in: 12.7% after a win, 9.3% after a draw, 6.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 9.3%.

Read from our Segunda Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on FC Porto B v União de Leiria has moved

First published on 11 Oct at 45% / 24% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 48% / 24% / 28%: the biggest move is FC Porto B's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. FC Porto B win48%▲ +3
  2. Draw24%=
  3. União de Leiria win28%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.