Start vs Fredrikstad Eliteserien prediction & result
Final score: Start 0-1 Fredrikstad.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% Start, 25% draw, 24% Fredrikstad — fair odds of 1.96, 4.00 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Start at 51% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Start vs Fredrikstad
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 45Filip ManojlovićG
- 29Erlend Dahl ReitanD
- 28Jens Berland HusebøD
- 6John Olav NorheimD
- 27Ousmane Diallo ToureM
- 20Hakon LorentzenM
- 23Erlend SegbergM
- 11Eirik SchulzeM
- 16Tom StrannegårdM
- 17Jesper CorneliusF
- 22James AmpofoF
- 12Deni DashaevD
- 3Altin UjkaniD
- 18Mikael UglandM
- 2Fredrik PalerudD
- 35Santino SamuyiwaM
- 1Jacob PrytsG
- 4Johan MeyerD
- 14Markus SoometsM
- 30Lukas Hjelleset GausdalM
- 77Martin BorsheimG
- 16Daniel EidD
- 38Isak Helstad AmundsenD
- 4Fredrik HolméD
- 12Ulrik FredriksenD
- 19Fanuel Ghebreyohannes Yrga-AlemD
- 29Gabriel WessehM
- 6Samuel Leach HolmM
- 14Max NilssonM
- 20Oskar ØhlenschlaegerM
- 23Henrik Langaas SkogvoldF
- 5Simen RafnD
- 7Benjamin FaraasM
- 9Salim LaghzaouiM
- 28Solomon OwusuD
- 1Oystein OvretveitG
- 18Jonathan NorbyeD
- 21Jakub JezierskiM
- 24Leonard OwusuM
- 10Johannes NúñezF
Form going into Start vs Fredrikstad
Start
- L0-3Viking1 August 2026
Fredrikstad
- W1-0Sandefjord1 August 2026
- L0-4away to Rosenborg27 July 2026
- L0-1away to Bodo/Glimt17 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Start | 20 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 22 | 41 | -19 | 16 |
| 7 | Fredrikstad | 20 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 24 | 31 | -7 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Start vs Fredrikstad
- 8 August 2026Start 0–1 FredrikstadEliteserien
- 29 May 2026Fredrikstad 2–1 StartEliteserien
- 3 September 2023Start 2–2 Fredrikstad1. Division
- 11 June 2023Fredrikstad 3–1 Start1. Division
- 31 July 2022Start 1–0 Fredrikstad1. Division
- 18 April 2022Fredrikstad 1–0 Start1. Division