31 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

FC Dnepr Mogilev vs FC Gomel Premier League prediction & result

Stadion Spartak, Mogilev
Full time2 – 1

Final score: FC Dnepr Mogilev 2-1 FC Gomel.

Before kick-off the model made it 31% FC Dnepr Mogilev, 28% draw, 41% FC Gomel — fair odds of 3.23, 3.57 and 2.44.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Gomel at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Dnepr Mogilev96%Draw4%FC Gomel0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Kirill Kirilenko
19'
Igor Kriushenko
26'
⚽Dmitriy·Lisakovichassist: Egor Karpitskiy
26'
⚽Artem Varganov
29'
45'
🔁Denis·Kovalevichout: Raymond Adeola
62'
🔁Aleksei Gavrilovichout: Maksim Mardas
68'
⚽Timofey Simanenkaassist: Kirill Danilin
🔁Kirill Kirilenkoout: Nikita Tereshchuk
69'
🔁Dmitriy·Lisakovichout: Aleksey Dunaev
69'
🔁Egor Karpitskiyout: R. Pilecki
86'
88'
🔁Damir·Shaikhtdinovout: Dmitry Emelyanov
Nikita krasnov
90+4'

Match stats — FC Dnepr Mogilev vs FC Gomel

41%Possession59%
11Shots14
5On target6
5Corners8

Line-ups

FC Dnepr Mogilev 4-4-2
  • 33A. SinenkoG
  • 89V. HarutyunyanD
  • 21E. KarpitskiyD
  • 17A. PotapenkoD
  • 88K. KirilenkoD
  • 15M. KasarabM
  • 55N. KrasnovM
  • 11D. LisakovichM
  • 5A. VarganovM
  • 8S. RusakF
  • 10K. ZabelinF
Substitutes
  • 27R. PiletskiyM
  • 37K. TsepenkovM
  • 74David CherkasovD
  • 23A. DunaevD
  • 3Nenad PerovićD
  • 66N. TereshchukM
  • 77Dmitri GushchenkoG
Coach: I. Kriushenko
FC Gomel 5-3-2
  • 44S. KleshchukG
  • 43D. ShaykhtdinovD
  • 4A. GavrilovichD
  • 90G. KukushkinD
  • 33V. SotnikovD
  • 17V. MartinkevichD
  • 23K. DanilinM
  • 19D. SilinskiyM
  • 21D. KovalevichM
  • 77V. LazarevF
  • 11T. SimanenkaF
Substitutes
  • 49A. KaratayG
  • 3S. MatveychikD
  • 14P. PashevichD
  • 7R. AdeolaM
  • 8E. BarsukovM
  • 9K. LeonovichM
  • 13M. MardasF
  • 22D. EmeljanovF
  • 66Roman ShapovalovF
Coach: A. Gorovtsov

Form going into FC Dnepr Mogilev vs FC Gomel

FC Dnepr Mogilev

Premier League

  • D0-0away to Arsenal Dzerzhinsk25 October 2026
  • W2-1Bate Borisov18 October 2026
  • L2-3Dinamo Minsk11 October 2026

FC Gomel

Premier League

  • L1-2Dinamo Minsk24 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Dinamo Brest17 October 2026
  • L1-5ML Vitebsk11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Belarus Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15FC Dnepr Mogilev28411132743-1623
6FC Gomel2812794029+1143

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Dnepr Mogilev vs FC Gomel

  • 20 June 2026FC Gomel 2–0 FC Dnepr MogilevPremier League
  • 7 February 2026FC Dnepr Mogilev 1–2 FC GomelFriendlies Clubs
  • 20 October 2024FC Gomel 1–1 FC Dnepr MogilevPremier League
  • 27 May 2024FC Dnepr Mogilev 0–1 FC GomelPremier League
  • 27 January 2024FC Dnepr Mogilev 3–0 FC GomelFriendlies Clubs
  • 15 February 2023FC Gomel 1–0 FC Dnepr MogilevFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: FC Dnepr Mogilev and FC Gomel

FC Dnepr Mogilev

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 27 league goals as a side.

FC Gomel

GoalsAssists

  • V. Sotnikov22

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FC Dnepr Mogilev beat FC Gomel 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Gomel at 41% and given a win for FC Dnepr Mogilev 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Dmitriy·Lisakovich 26' for FC Dnepr Mogilev, Artem Varganov 29' for FC Dnepr Mogilev, Timofey Simanenka 68' for FC Gomel.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC Dnepr Mogilev a 79.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 63.0% after a win, 81.7% after a draw, 91.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 63.0%, 16.7 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on FC Dnepr Mogilev v FC Gomel has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 30% / 27% / 43% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 31% / 28% / 41%: the biggest move is FC Gomel's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. FC Dnepr Mogilev win31%▲ +1
  2. Draw28%▲ +1
  3. FC Gomel win41%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.