3 November 2026, 22:30 UTC

Chapecoense vs Mirassol Serie A prediction & result

Arena Condá, Chapeco
Referee: Lucas Paulo Torezin, Brazil
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Chapecoense 1-2 Mirassol.

Before kick-off the model made it 31% Chapecoense, 28% draw, 41% Mirassol — fair odds of 3.23, 3.57 and 2.44.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published

Has the model earned this number?

Mirassol at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Kauanassist: Giovanni Augusto
12'
Bruno Pacheco
15'
18'
•André Luis
20'
⚽Reinaldo (pen)
Camilo
22'
45+8'
Denilson
45+2'
•Alesson
45'
⚽Reinaldo (pen)
46'
🔁Denilsonout: Jose Aldo
46'
🔁Eduardoout: Carlos Eduardo
57'
⚽Anderson (OG)
🔁Yago Felipeout: David Antunes
62'
🔁Y. Bolasieout: K. Ramirez
62'
🔁Tulioout: F. Rossi
62'
🔁Giovanni Augustoout: M. Carvalho
68'
72'
🔁Shaylonout: Chico Kim
🔁Marcinhoout: D. Borrero
78'
78'
🔁Alessonout: Fernandinho
Eduardo Doma
82'
89'
🔁Neto Mouraout: Willian Machado

Match stats — Chapecoense vs Mirassol

47%Possession53%
12Shots15
4On target4
4Corners5
0.54xG2.19

Goals against chances

Chapecoense1 from 0.54 xGabout what the chances were worth
Mirassol2 from 2.19 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Chapecoense 4-2-3-1
  • 98AndersonG
  • 5HeitorD
  • 21KauanD
  • 3Eduardo DomaD
  • 91Bruno PachecoD
  • 27Camilo ReijersM
  • 88Yago FelipeM
  • 7MarcinhoM
  • 10Giovanni AugustoM
  • 11Y. BolasieM
  • 9TulioF
Substitutes
  • 30Matheus AurelioG
  • 15Rafael ThyereD
  • 23Dudu Marques
  • 12FernandoD
  • 25Victor CaetanoD
  • 16Bruno MatiasM
  • 22Max AlvesM
  • 80M. CarvalhoM
  • 19David AntunesM
Coach: Lacerda Rafael
Mirassol 4-2-3-1
  • 22WalterG
  • 32Igor FormigaD
  • 34Joao VictorD
  • 2Lucas OliveiraD
  • 6ReinaldoD
  • 27DenilsonM
  • 25Neto Moura
  • 7ShaylonM
  • 33EduardoM
  • 77AlessonM
  • 9Andre LuisF
Substitutes
  • 90ThomazellaG
  • 44Gabriel KnesowitschD
  • 20Daniel BorgesD
  • 3Willian MachadoD
  • 80WallissonM
  • 21Jose AldoM
  • 10Chico KimM
  • 5JapaM
  • 17FernandinhoF
Coach: Guanaes Rafael

Form going into Chapecoense vs Mirassol

Chapecoense

Serie A

  • L0-3away to RB Bragantino28 October 2026
  • W2-1Fluminense24 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Botafogo17 October 2026

Mirassol

Serie A

  • L0-2away to Corinthians30 October 2026
  • D1-1Sao Paulo24 October 2026
  • W2-0Internacional16 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
20Chapecoense3449213370-3721
14Mirassol351011143948-941

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Chapecoense vs Mirassol

Chapecoense and Mirassol have met 6 times in the records we hold, Mirassol has won 5 of them to Chapecoense's 0, with 1 drawn.

The record

Mirassol won the last one 2–1 on 3 Nov 2026.

ClubWDLGFGA
Chapecoense01527
Mirassol51072

Between them these 6 meetings produced 9 goals, an average of 1.50 a game.

Every meeting

Every recorded meeting, newest first.

  • 3 Nov 2026
    Serie A    Chapecoense 1–2 Mirassol
  • 10 May 2026
    Serie A    Mirassol 1–1 Chapecoense
  • 24 Nov 2024
    Serie B    Mirassol 1–0 Chapecoense
  • 5 Aug 2024
    Serie B    Chapecoense 0–1 Mirassol
  • 29 Jul 2023
    Serie B    Chapecoense 0–1 Mirassol
  • 15 Apr 2023
    Serie B    Mirassol 1–0 Chapecoense

How the model rates them now

On the current ratings, Mirassol's attack rates 20% above Chapecoense's, and Mirassol concede 36% fewer than Chapecoense. That gives Mirassol the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.

ClubAttackDefence
Chapecoense0.661.69
Mirassol0.791.09

More head-to-heads on this week’s board →

The result against the call

Mirassol won 2–1 at Chapecoense. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Mirassol at 41%. The goals: Kauan 12' for Chapecoense, Reinaldo (penalty) 45' for Mirassol, Anderson (own goal) 57' for Mirassol. On expected goals it finished 0.54–2.19.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Mirassol a 26.3% chance to finish in the bottom four: 11.7% after a win, 30.4% after a draw, 42.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 11.7%, 14.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Chapecoense v Mirassol has moved

First published on 20 Oct at 30% / 27% / 43% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 31% / 28% / 41%: the biggest move is Mirassol's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Chapecoense win31%▲ +1
  2. Draw28%▲ +1
  3. Mirassol win41%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.