14 August 2026, 18:30 UTC

Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom Ekstraklasa prediction & result

Stadion Wojska Polskiego, Warsaw
Full time5 – 0

Final score: Legia Warszawa 5-0 Radomiak Radom.

Before kick-off the model made it 79% Legia Warszawa, 14% draw, 7% Radomiak Radom — fair odds of 1.27, 7.14 and 14.29. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Legia Warszawa at 79% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Legia Warszawa99%Draw1%Radomiak Radom0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽M. Sevcikassist: P. Wszolek
7'
9'
Zié Ouattara
•Rafał Augustyniak
10'
⚽R. Augustyniak
10'
⚽R. Adamskiassist: R. Vinagre
17'
⚽B. Kapustka
44'
45+2'
Adrián Diéguez
🔁M. Sevcikout: J. Zewlakow
46'
⚽B. Kapustkaassist: P. Wszolek
51'
🔁D. Szymanskiout: H. Arreiol
56'
🔁R. Adamskiout: J. Kuchta
56'
57'
🔁R. Lumungoout: R. Baro
57'
🔁A. Tapsobaout: F. Goure
61'
🔁I. Camaraout: C. Donis
61'
🔁A. Dieguezout: F. Koperski
🔁L. Zjawinskiout: M. Rajovic
71'
81'
🔁Conradoout: K. Karasek
🔁P. Wszolekout: E. Mikanovich
82'
Bartosz Kapustka
90+1'

Match stats — Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom

49%Possession51%
17Shots7
7On target2
3Corners2
1.68xG0.38

Goals against chances

Legia Warszawa5 from 1.68 xGmore than the chances were worth
Radomiak Radom0 from 0.38 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Legia Warszawa 3-1-4-2
  • 89O. HindrichG
  • 91K. PiatkowskiD
  • 8R. AugustyniakD
  • 5R. DezielD
  • 4D. SzymanskiM
  • 22P. WszolekM
  • 23M. SevcikM
  • 67B. KapustkaM
  • 19R. VinagreM
  • 79L. ZjawinskiF
  • 9R. AdamskiF
Substitutes
  • 59J. BiendugaG
  • 24Z. ArsenicD
  • 13A. RecaD
  • 6H. ArreiolM
  • 53W. UrbanskiM
  • 20J. ZewlakowF
  • 11K. ChodynaM
  • 7J. KuchtaF
  • 97E. MikanovichM
Coach: Marek Papszun
Radomiak Radom 4-1-4-1
  • 99B. GradeckiG
  • 24Zie OuattaraD
  • 3K. SzczesniakD
  • 26A. DieguezD
  • 97ConradoD
  • 8I. CamaraM
  • 90R. Lumungo
  • 27R. WolskiM
  • 82LuquinhasM
  • 13J. GrzesikM
  • 15A. TapsobaF
Substitutes
  • 1F. MajchrowiczG
  • 5J. BlascoD
  • 47S. KilianekD
  • 33O. MarkiewiczD
  • 28R. BaroM
  • 77C. DonisM
  • 23K. KarasekM
  • 72F. KoperskiM
  • 17A. ZabickiM
Coach: Tomasz Kaczmarek

Form going into Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom

Legia Warszawa

  • D1-1away to Korona Kielce8 August 2026
  • W3-1Zaglebie Lubin2 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Pogon Szczecin24 July 2026

Radomiak Radom

  • L1-3Gornik Zabrze8 August 2026
  • L1-3away to GKS Katowice2 August 2026
  • W2-1Wieczysta Kraków24 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Legia Warszawa8440167+916
14Radomiak Radom8224615-98

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom

  • 14 August 2026Legia Warszawa 5–0 Radomiak RadomEkstraklasa
  • 14 July 2026Legia Warszawa 3–1 Radomiak RadomFriendlies Clubs
  • 13 March 2026Radomiak Radom 1–1 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
  • 14 September 2025Legia Warszawa 4–1 Radomiak RadomEkstraklasa
  • 22 February 2025Radomiak Radom 3–1 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
  • 18 August 2024Legia Warszawa 4–1 Radomiak RadomEkstraklasa

Leading scorers: Legia Warszawa and Radomiak Radom

Legia Warszawa

  • R. Augustyniak3 goals1 assists
  • R. Adamski3 goals
  • Ł. Zjawiński3 goals

Radomiak Radom

  • R. Wolski3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.