7 November 2026, 16:30 UTC

Gornik Zabrze vs Wieczysta Kraków Ekstraklasa prediction & result

Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Zabrze
Referee: Wojciech Myc
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Gornik Zabrze 2-1 Wieczysta Kraków.

Before kick-off the model made it 61% Gornik Zabrze, 23% draw, 16% Wieczysta Kraków — fair odds of 1.64, 4.35 and 6.25.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Gornik Zabrze at 61%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Gornik Zabrze6%Draw92%Wieczysta Kraków2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

31'
⚽Lucas Piazónassist: Lisandro Semedo
⚽Ondrej Zmrzlyassist: Maksym Khlan
33'
43'
Lisandro Semedo
Malthe Hojholt
47'
🔁Kacper Urbanskiout: Sondre Liseth
61'
🔁Erik Prekopout: Janis Antiste
61'
64'
🔁Villarout: Petar Pusic
🔁Paulo Bernardoout: Jarosław Kubicki
78'
79'
Kamil Pestka
79'
🔁Efthymios Koulourisout: Ben Lederman
🔁Peter Federico González Carmonaout: Yvan Ikia Dimi
83'
87'
Petar Pusic
89'
🔁Tobias Christensenout: Bartosz Bialek
89'
🔁Lisandro Semedoout: Christophe Lungoyi
⚽Erik Janža
90'
Erik Janža
90+1'

Match stats — Gornik Zabrze vs Wieczysta Kraków

57%Possession43%
25Shots7
11On target4
3Corners5
3.05xG0.45

Goals against chances

Gornik Zabrze2 from 3.05 xGless than the chances were worth
Wieczysta Kraków1 from 0.45 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Gornik Zabrze 4-1-4-1
  • 1P. SchulzeG
  • 21O. ZmrzlýD
  • 66M. DietzD
  • 20Josema SánchezD
  • 64E. JanžaD
  • 6M. HøjholtM
  • 19PeterM
  • 82K. UrbańskiM
  • 8Paulo BernardoM
  • 33M. KhlanM
  • 11E. PrekopF
Substitutes
  • 4P. BochniewiczD
  • 28B. DonioM
  • 7Y. Ikia DimiM
  • 27Z. InoussaF
  • 9J. AntisteF
  • 29W. KaniaG
  • 14J. KubickiM
  • 23S. LisethF
  • 99T. LoskaG
Coach: M. Gašparík
Wieczysta Kraków 3-4-3
  • 77M. KochalskiG
  • 4K. FilaD
  • 15A. ĐermanovićD
  • 55D. DujmovićD
  • 23Miki VillarM
  • 20M. MaigaardM
  • 12Lucas PiazónM
  • 33K. PestkaM
  • 10T. ChristensenF
  • 9E. KoulourisF
  • 7Lisandro SemedoF
Substitutes
  • 27M. VojtkoD
  • 70P. PušićM
  • 16A. MilićD
  • 1A. MikułkoG
  • 88C. LungoyiF
  • 8B. LedermanM
  • 11N. KneževićM
  • 17K. DankowskiD
  • 21B. BiałekF
Coach: Ž. Kopić

Form going into Gornik Zabrze vs Wieczysta Kraków

Gornik Zabrze

Ekstraklasa

  • D0-0Legia Warszawa30 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Widzew Łódź23 October 2026
  • D1-1Piast Gliwice18 October 2026
  • W3-1away to Jagiellonia10 October 2026

Wieczysta Kraków

Ekstraklasa

  • L1-3Jagiellonia31 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Slask Wroclaw25 October 2026
  • L1-2Raków Częstochowa16 October 2026
  • L1-2away to GKS Katowice12 October 2026

What these results say

  • Gornik Zabrze went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Gornik Zabrze failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Gornik Zabrze scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Wieczysta Kraków did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Wieczysta Kraków conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Wieczysta Kraków scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Gornik Zabrze149412312+1131
18Wieczysta Kraków1422101828-108

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Gornik Zabrze and Wieczysta Kraków

Gornik Zabrze

GoalsAssists

  • K. Urbański51

Wieczysta Kraków

GoalsAssists

  • Lucas Piazón42

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Gornik Zabrze beat Wieczysta Kraków 2–1. The model had made a win for Gornik Zabrze its most likely outcome, at 61%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Lucas Piazón 31' for Wieczysta Kraków, Ondrej Zmrzly 33' for Gornik Zabrze, Erik Janža 90' for Gornik Zabrze. On expected goals it finished 3.05–0.45.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Gornik Zabrze a 47.9% chance to finish in the top two: 50.7% after a win, 43.8% after a draw, 38.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 50.7%, 2.8 points higher than before the match.

For Wieczysta Kraków the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 60.0% going in: 48.2% after a win, 57.2% after a draw, 62.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 62.9%, 2.9 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Ekstraklasa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Gornik Zabrze v Wieczysta Kraków has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 58% / 23% / 19% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 61% / 23% / 16%: the biggest move is Gornik Zabrze's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Gornik Zabrze win61%▲ +3
  2. Draw23%=
  3. Wieczysta Kraków win16%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.