6 November 2026, 19:30 UTC

Wisla Krakow vs Cracovia Krakow Ekstraklasa prediction & result

Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana
Referee: Szymon Marciniak
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Wisla Krakow 2-1 Cracovia Krakow.

Before kick-off the model made it 52% Wisla Krakow, 26% draw, 22% Cracovia Krakow — fair odds of 1.92, 3.85 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Wisla Krakow at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Wisla Krakow97%Draw3%Cracovia Krakow0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Marc Carboassist: Julius Ertlthaler
9'
12'
Martin Minchev
17'
•Otar Kakabadze
20'
⚽Ajdin Hasić (pen)
20'
⚽Ajdin Hasić
⚽Marko Bozic
45+2'
45+8'
Lasse Selvåg Nordås
60'
🔁Lasse Selvåg Nordåsout: Mohamed Berte
61'
🔁Martin Minchevout: Sayfallah Ltaief
70'
Otar Kakabadze
Marko Bozic
75'
75'
Karol Knap
🔁Darijo Grujcicout: Maxence Maisonneuve
79'
🔁Marko Bozicout: Julian Lelieveld
79'
84'
🔁Gustav Henrikssonout: Dominik Baumgartner
84'
🔁Amir Al-Ammariout: Kahveh Zahiroleslam
86'
Vincent Burlet
🔁Marc Carboout: Víctor Meseguer
90'
🔁Angel·Rodadoout: Jérémy Guillemenot
90'
90'
🔁Karol Knapout: Dominik Pila
90+3'
Mateusz Klich
90+4'
Kahveh Zahiroleslam

Match stats — Wisla Krakow vs Cracovia Krakow

55%Possession45%
15Shots16
8On target5
5Corners3
1.05xG1.49

Goals against chances

Wisla Krakow2 from 1.05 xGmore than the chances were worth
Cracovia Krakow1 from 1.49 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Wisla Krakow 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. ŁubikG
  • 34R. GigerD
  • 6A. UrygaD
  • 29D. GrujčićD
  • 52J. KrzyżanowskiD
  • 41K. DudaM
  • 8Marc CarbóM
  • 10Frederico DuarteM
  • 7J. ErtlthalerM
  • 17M. BožićM
  • 9Ángel RodadoF
Substitutes
  • 97W. BiedrzyckiD
  • 21J. GuillemenotF
  • 50M. KutwaD
  • 2J. LelieveldD
  • 13M. MaisonneuveD
  • 23Víctor MeseguerM
  • 4R. MikulecD
  • 93B. NeugebauerG
  • 32Oliwier PlawinskiM
Coach: M. Jop
Cracovia Krakow 4-1-4-1
  • 13S. MadejskiG
  • 25O. KakabadzeD
  • 4G. HenrikssonD
  • 61B. TraoréD
  • 28V. BurletD
  • 6Amir Al AmmariM
  • 14A. HasićM
  • 20K. KnapM
  • 43M. KlichM
  • 17M. MinchevM
  • 11L. NordåsF
Substitutes
  • 77J. ChrapustaG
  • 29W. DejM
  • 15K. GlikD
  • 70D. KameriM
  • 47S. LtaiefF
  • 39M. PerkovićD
  • 79D. PiłaD
  • 5B. SelanM
  • 18Kahveh ZahiroleslamF
Coach: B. Grzelak

Form going into Wisla Krakow vs Cracovia Krakow

Wisla Krakow

Ekstraklasa

  • L1-3away to Lech Poznan31 October 2026
  • W2-1Raków Częstochowa24 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Widzew Łódź16 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Legia Warszawa11 October 2026

Cracovia Krakow

Ekstraklasa

  • L1-2Motor Lublin30 October 2026
  • L1-3away to Piast Gliwice24 October 2026
  • D1-1Legia Warszawa17 October 2026
  • W3-1Zaglebie Lubin10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Wisla Krakow failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Wisla Krakow conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Cracovia Krakow scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Cracovia Krakow conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for Cracovia Krakow.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Wisla Krakow147342219+324
15Cracovia Krakow143381623-712

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Wisla Krakow vs Cracovia Krakow

  • 1 May 2022Cracovia Krakow 0–0 Wisla KrakowEkstraklasa
  • 7 November 2021Wisla Krakow 1–0 Cracovia KrakowEkstraklasa
  • 24 April 2021Wisla Krakow 0–0 Cracovia KrakowEkstraklasa
  • 4 December 2020Cracovia Krakow 1–1 Wisla KrakowEkstraklasa
  • 3 March 2020Cracovia Krakow 0–2 Wisla KrakowEkstraklasa
  • 29 September 2019Wisla Krakow 0–1 Cracovia KrakowEkstraklasa

Leading scorers: Wisla Krakow and Cracovia Krakow

Wisla Krakow

GoalsAssists

  • Ángel Rodado41

Cracovia Krakow

GoalsAssists

  • A. Hasić72

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Wisla Krakow beat Cracovia Krakow 2–1. The model had made a win for Wisla Krakow its most likely outcome, at 52%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Marc Carbo 9' for Wisla Krakow, Ajdin Hasić 20' for Cracovia Krakow, Marko Bozic 45+2' for Wisla Krakow. Sent off: Mateusz Klich (Cracovia Krakow) 90+3'. On expected goals it finished 1.05–1.49.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Cracovia Krakow a 37.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 27.9% after a win, 34.7% after a draw, 41.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 41.2%, 3.7 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Ekstraklasa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Wisla Krakow v Cracovia Krakow has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 50% / 27% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 52% / 26% / 22%: the biggest move is Wisla Krakow's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Wisla Krakow win52%▲ +2
  2. Draw26%▼ −1
  3. Cracovia Krakow win22%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.