7 November 2026, 11:15 UTC

Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom Ekstraklasa prediction & result

Exbud Arena, Kielce
Referee: Tomasz Kwiatkowski
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Korona Kielce 0-2 Radomiak Radom.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% Korona Kielce, 26% draw, 26% Radomiak Radom — fair odds of 2.08, 3.85 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Korona Kielce at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Korona Kielce0%Draw1%Radomiak Radom99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Patrik Hellebrand
11'
Martin Remacle
27'
39'
Steve Kingue
42'
Conrado
45+1'
Zie Mohamed Ouattara
Morgan Faßbender
45+1'
59'
Filip Koperski
68'
🔁Ronaldo Lumungoout: Che Nunnely
69'
⚽Filip Koperskiassist: Jan Grzesik
🔁Patrik Hellebrandout: Nono
72'
🔁Morgan Faßbenderout: Michael Ameyaw
72'
75'
🔁Bi Irié Fernand Gouréout: Guilherme Luiz
Bartlomiej·Smolarczyk
80'
🔁Martin Remacleout: Daniel Bak
80'
🔁Marcel·Pieczekout: Konrad Matuszewski
80'
82'
⚽Jan Grzesikassist: Lucas Lima Linhares
85'
Zie Mohamed Ouattara
89'
🔁Lucas Lima Linharesout: kacper karasek
🔁Ariel Mosorout: Dawid Błanik
90'

Match stats — Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom

53%Possession47%
37Shots12
11On target3
20Corners3
2.71xG1.15

Goals against chances

Korona Kielce0 from 2.71 xGless than the chances were worth
Radomiak Radom2 from 1.15 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Korona Kielce 4-3-3
  • 1X. DziekońskiG
  • 71W. DługoszD
  • 24B. SmolarczykD
  • 2A. MosórD
  • 6M. PięczekD
  • 18P. HellebrandM
  • 8M. RemacleM
  • 35Kamil JakubczykM
  • 30C. MenaF
  • 14M. StępińskiF
  • 22M. FaßbenderF
Substitutes
  • 19M. AmeyawM
  • 99Daniel BakF
  • 67N. BarczakD
  • 7D. BłanikM
  • 9S. DavidovićM
  • 86Simon GustafsonM
  • 87R. MamlaG
  • 11K. MatuszewskiD
  • 10NonoM
Coach: R. Kolendowicz
Radomiak Radom 4-1-4-1
  • 1F. MajchrowiczG
  • 24Z. OuattaraD
  • 14S. KingueD
  • 72F. KoperskiD
  • 97ConradoD
  • 77C. DonisM
  • 13J. GrzesikM
  • 10R. AlvesM
  • 82LuquinhasM
  • 90Ronaldo AfonsoM
  • 11F. GouréF
Substitutes
  • 26Adrián DiéguezD
  • 99B. GradeckiG
  • 80Guilherme LuizF
  • 23K. KarasekM
  • 44W. KoptasG
  • 18ManuF
  • 7C. NunnelyF
  • 27R. WolskiM
  • 28Romário BaróM
Coach: John Carver

Form going into Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom

Korona Kielce

Ekstraklasa

  • L0-1away to Zaglebie Lubin2 November 2026
  • W1-0GKS Katowice24 October 2026
  • L1-6away to Lech Poznan18 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Pogon Szczecin11 October 2026

Radomiak Radom

Ekstraklasa

  • W3-1Slask Wroclaw2 November 2026
  • L3-4away to Pogon Szczecin24 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Wisla Plock19 October 2026
  • L2-3Motor Lublin12 October 2026

What these results say

  • Korona Kielce failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Korona Kielce conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Korona Kielce had two goals or fewer.
  • Radomiak Radom conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Radomiak Radom failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Radomiak Radom scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Korona Kielce145361421-718
14Radomiak Radom144281729-1214

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom

  • 13 February 2026Radomiak Radom 0–2 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
  • 8 August 2025Korona Kielce 3–0 Radomiak RadomEkstraklasa
  • 30 March 2025Korona Kielce 1–3 Radomiak RadomEkstraklasa
  • 20 September 2024Radomiak Radom 4–0 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
  • 26 June 2024Radomiak Radom 3–0 Korona KielceFriendlies Clubs
  • 19 April 2024Korona Kielce 4–0 Radomiak RadomEkstraklasa

Leading scorers: Korona Kielce and Radomiak Radom

Korona Kielce

GoalsAssists

  • M. Stępiński60

Radomiak Radom

GoalsAssists

  • J. Grzesik53

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Radomiak Radom won 2–0 at Korona Kielce. The model had leaned towards a win for Korona Kielce at 48% and given a win for Radomiak Radom 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Filip Koperski 69' for Radomiak Radom, Jan Grzesik 82' for Radomiak Radom. Sent off: Zie Mohamed Ouattara (Radomiak Radom) 85'. On expected goals it finished 2.71–1.15.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Korona Kielce a 7.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 4.8% after a win, 7.9% after a draw, 9.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 9.7%, 2.7 points higher than before the match.

For Radomiak Radom the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 56.2% going in: 47.2% after a win, 55.0% after a draw, 60.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 47.2%, 9 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Ekstraklasa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Korona Kielce v Radomiak Radom has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 50% / 26% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 48% / 26% / 26%: the biggest move is Korona Kielce's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Korona Kielce win48%▼ −2
  2. Draw26%=
  3. Radomiak Radom win26%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.