Fortuna Sittard vs Telstar Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: Fortuna Sittard 2-2 Telstar.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Fortuna Sittard, 26% draw, 30% Telstar — fair odds of 2.27, 3.85 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Fortuna Sittard at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Fortuna Sittard vs Telstar
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 31M. BranderhorstG
- 12Ivo PintoD
- 6S. van OtteleD
- 4Iván MárquezD
- 28Justin Quincy HubnerD
- 8J. DahlhausD
- 52M. IhattarenM
- 23P. BrittijnM
- 22Shiloh Kiesar ’t ZandM
- 7K. PetersonM
- 9A. DescotteF
- 39Ganni BuyukhanM
- 38Moussa GbemouM
- 1L. KoopmansG
- 33K. ReitmaierG
- 14S. SimonsM
- 2S. WylinD
- 15N. de GrootD
- 35K. van BurgstedenM
- 5Y. OukiliM
- 1R. KoemanG
- 18G. CaschiliD
- 16S. ValkD
- 4A. SoualhiaD
- 43M. PeersmanD
- 6Isaiah AhmedM
- 10T. OwusuM
- 17N. RossenM
- 42A. MarthaF
- 11N. ÞórissonF
- 27P. BrouwerF
- 21F. TurayF
- 23N. ShenkmanM
- 9Jelani SeedorfF
- 19F. RustF
- 20D. ReizigerG
- 28R. OudstenD
- 15N. NwankwoD
- 13Finn MulderG
- 14H. KusterM
Form going into Fortuna Sittard vs Telstar
Fortuna Sittard
Eredivisie
- D1-1away to Feyenoord31 October 2026
- W1-0Excelsior25 October 2026
- D2-2away to NEC Nijmegen18 October 2026
- D1-1Twente10 October 2026
Telstar
Eredivisie
- W4-2Utrecht1 November 2026
- L2-3away to GO Ahead Eagles23 October 2026
- L3-4Feyenoord17 October 2026
- D2-2ADO Den Haag11 October 2026
What these results say
- Fortuna Sittard went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Fortuna Sittard scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Fortuna Sittard failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Telstar scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Telstar conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Telstar had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 20 |
| 16 | Telstar | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Fortuna Sittard vs Telstar
- 8 March 2026Fortuna Sittard 1–4 TelstarEredivisie
- 14 September 2025Telstar 1–3 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
- 16 February 2018Fortuna Sittard 1–1 TelstarEerste Divisie
- 29 September 2017Telstar 0–6 Fortuna SittardEerste Divisie
- 20 January 2017Fortuna Sittard 1–1 TelstarEerste Divisie
- 12 August 2016Telstar 1–1 Fortuna SittardEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: Fortuna Sittard and Telstar
Fortuna Sittard
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 20 league goals as a side.
Telstar
GoalsAssists
- T. Owusu51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Fortuna Sittard and Telstar drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Fortuna Sittard at 44% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Mohammed Ihattaren (penalty) 15' for Fortuna Sittard, Sem valk (own goal) 43' for Fortuna Sittard, Abdelnour Soualhia 45' for Telstar, Patrick Brouwer 45+2' for Telstar. On expected goals it finished 1.95–0.85.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Fortuna Sittard a 6.0% chance to finish in the top four: 7.5% after a win, 4.2% after a draw, 4.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 4.2%, 1.8 points lower than before the match.
For Telstar the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 12.5% going in: 8.7% after a win, 10.9% after a draw, 14.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 10.9%, 1.6 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Eredivisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Fortuna Sittard v Telstar has moved
First published on 24 Oct at 46% / 25% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 44% / 26% / 30%: the biggest move is Fortuna Sittard's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Fortuna Sittard win44%▼ −2
- Draw26%▲ +1
- Telstar win30%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.