Excelsior vs GO Ahead Eagles Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: Excelsior 0-1 GO Ahead Eagles.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Excelsior, 24% draw, 38% GO Ahead Eagles — fair odds of 2.63, 4.17 and 2.63.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Excelsior at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Excelsior vs GO Ahead Eagles
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1S. van GasselG
- 3R. MeissenD
- 4C. WidellD
- 14J. PlugD
- 12K. BosD
- 20L. HartjesM
- 8I. YegoianM
- 7A. SlitiM
- 10N. NaujoksM
- 30Á. ÞorsteinssonM
- 9Mario DomínguezF
- 24Giulliano CairoM
- 19D. GardenF
- 11A. JahanbakhshF
- 15S. JanssenD
- 34Quinten KraaivangerM
- 23Y. FineyM
- 21I. Silva TimasF
- 18V. SulzbacherM
- 22O. TurayD
- 24J. CillessenG
- 2A. SampstedD
- 26J. DirksenD
- 4J. KramerD
- 27Tomas GalvezD
- 21M. MeulensteenM
- 34Y. RahmouniM
- 10S. TengstedtM
- 17M. SurayM
- 23T. BaetenM
- 9S. SigurðarsonF
- 29E. FlatakerF
- 1K. HaugG
- 16V. EdvardsenF
- 5D. JamesD
- 6T. JukićD
- 8E. LinthorstM
- 18R. MargaretF
- 3G. NauberD
- 11O. SivertsenF
Form going into Excelsior vs GO Ahead Eagles
Excelsior
Eredivisie
- L0-9Twente1 November 2026
- L0-1away to Fortuna Sittard25 October 2026
- L0-4away to Heerenveen16 October 2026
- L1-5Groningen11 October 2026
GO Ahead Eagles
Eredivisie
- L0-4away to Cambuur31 October 2026
- W3-2Telstar23 October 2026
- L1-4away to PEC Zwolle18 October 2026
- D3-3Sparta Rotterdam10 October 2026
What these results say
- Excelsior did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Excelsior conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Excelsior failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
- GO Ahead Eagles conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for GO Ahead Eagles had three goals or more.
- GO Ahead Eagles failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Excelsior | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 29 | -13 | 11 |
| 8 | GO Ahead Eagles | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 24 | 27 | -3 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Excelsior vs GO Ahead Eagles
- 1 March 2026Excelsior 0–1 GO Ahead EaglesEredivisie
- 26 October 2025GO Ahead Eagles 2–0 ExcelsiorEredivisie
- 30 March 2024GO Ahead Eagles 3–0 ExcelsiorEredivisie
- 16 December 2023Excelsior 1–1 GO Ahead EaglesEredivisie
- 14 April 2023Excelsior 2–1 GO Ahead EaglesEredivisie
- 29 October 2022GO Ahead Eagles 3–1 ExcelsiorEredivisie
Leading scorers: Excelsior and GO Ahead Eagles
Excelsior
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
GO Ahead Eagles
GoalsAssists
- S. Tengstedt92
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
GO Ahead Eagles won 1–0 at Excelsior. The goal: Søren Tengstedt 72' for GO Ahead Eagles. On expected goals it finished 0.84–0.61.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Excelsior a 35.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 27.2% after a win, 37.0% after a draw, 42.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 42.5%, 6.6 points higher than before the match.
For GO Ahead Eagles the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 14.0% going in: 8.9% after a win, 13.7% after a draw, 17.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 8.9%, 5.1 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Eredivisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Excelsior v GO Ahead Eagles has moved
First published on 24 Oct at 42% / 24% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 38% / 24% / 38%: the biggest move is Excelsior's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Excelsior win38%▼ −4
- Draw24%=
- GO Ahead Eagles win38%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.