ADO Den Haag vs Sparta Rotterdam Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: ADO Den Haag 3-1 Sparta Rotterdam.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% ADO Den Haag, 26% draw, 31% Sparta Rotterdam — fair odds of 2.33, 3.85 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
ADO Den Haag at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — ADO Den Haag vs Sparta Rotterdam
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1K. NikiémaG
- 10Illaijh de RuijterD
- 3P. MulderD
- 4M. WaemD
- 15M. HokkeD
- 25J. KiloM
- 14M. JiménezM
- 7D. van MieghemM
- 11E. RottierM
- 17J. HawkinsM
- 27N. ThomasF
- 22L. WilhelmD
- 32D. van LoenenM
- 8J. ŽambůrekM
- 9J. BalF
- 77D. BárányF
- 16Finn de BruinM
- 12Sem EekhoutG
- 5J. Jensen-AbbewD
- 21C. PeupionF
- 1M. BrouwerG
- 2L. MartesD
- 3M. YoungD
- 4B. Martins IndiD
- 5B. KuipersD
- 8Cedric HatenboerM
- 6Teo QuinteroM
- 7M. van BergenM
- 10S. MitoM
- 11I. BabadiM
- 9M. ZonneveldF
- 18Robin van CruijsenM
- 21J. ToornstraM
- 17C. TerhoF
- 16A. RoaldsøyM
- 12B. ReithD
- 30P. KuiperG
- 19Andrej KostićF
- 22Joel IdehoF
- 20F. BednarekG
Form going into ADO Den Haag vs Sparta Rotterdam
ADO Den Haag
Eredivisie
- L0-1away to PEC Zwolle1 November 2026
- L2-3Heerenveen24 October 2026
- W2-1PSV Eindhoven17 October 2026
- D2-2away to Telstar11 October 2026
Sparta Rotterdam
Eredivisie
- W3-2away to Groningen1 November 2026
- L1-2Ajax25 October 2026
- W3-2Willem II17 October 2026
- D3-3away to GO Ahead Eagles10 October 2026
What these results say
- ADO Den Haag conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- ADO Den Haag failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- ADO Den Haag scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Sparta Rotterdam scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Sparta Rotterdam conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Sparta Rotterdam had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 25 | -9 | 9 |
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 29 | -8 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: ADO Den Haag vs Sparta Rotterdam
- 12 July 2025ADO Den Haag 0–2 Sparta RotterdamFriendlies Clubs
- 19 March 2025ADO Den Haag 0–2 Sparta RotterdamFriendlies Clubs
- 13 July 2024Sparta Rotterdam 1–1 ADO Den HaagFriendlies Clubs
- 20 December 2023ADO Den Haag 2–0 Sparta RotterdamKNVB Beker
- 1 August 2023ADO Den Haag 1–2 Sparta RotterdamFriendlies Clubs
- 4 December 2022ADO Den Haag 0–3 Sparta RotterdamFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: ADO Den Haag and Sparta Rotterdam
ADO Den Haag
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Sparta Rotterdam
GoalsAssists
- M. Zonneveld72
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
ADO Den Haag beat Sparta Rotterdam 3–1. The model had made a win for ADO Den Haag its most likely outcome, at 43%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Juho Kilo 22' for ADO Den Haag, Bas Kuipers 50' for Sparta Rotterdam, Nigel Thomas 57' for ADO Den Haag, Daryl van Mieghem 79' for ADO Den Haag. On expected goals it finished 1.66–1.95.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave ADO Den Haag a 44.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 35.7% after a win, 45.8% after a draw, 53.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 35.7%, 8.3 points lower than before the match.
For Sparta Rotterdam the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 23.3% going in: 15.9% after a win, 23.2% after a draw, 28.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 28.2%, 4.9 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Eredivisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on ADO Den Haag v Sparta Rotterdam has moved
First published on 24 Oct at 46% / 25% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 43% / 26% / 31%: the biggest move is ADO Den Haag's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- ADO Den Haag win43%▼ −3
- Draw26%▲ +1
- Sparta Rotterdam win31%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.