Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: Groningen 2-3 Sparta Rotterdam.
Before kick-off the model made it 59% Groningen, 21% draw, 20% Sparta Rotterdam — fair odds of 1.69, 4.76 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Groningen at 59%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1E. VaessenG
- 33H. HateboerD
- 3T. BlokzijlD
- 5M. RenteD
- 4M. CsingerD
- 8T. de JongeM
- 26T. van BergenM
- 24P. ClementM
- 14J. SchreudersF
- 9B. WillumssonF
- 11J. OndrejkaF
- 12M. BrandisD
- 44Besnik MashukuM
- 20Nils EggensF
- 53J. HallM
- 18T. LandM
- 29Tyrique MerceraD
- 42J. MosselaarD
- 16A. NordinM
- 2Wouter PrinsD
- 1M. BrouwerG
- 2L. MartesD
- 3M. YoungD
- 6N. VerschurenD
- 4B. Martins IndiD
- 5B. KuipersD
- 7M. van BergenM
- 10J. ToornstraM
- 8Cedric HatenboerM
- 11I. BabadiM
- 9M. ZonneveldF
- 20F. BednarekG
- 13J. BaasM
- 22Joel IdehoF
- 19Andrej KostićF
- 30P. KuiperG
- 21S. MitoF
- 14Teo QuinteroD
- 12B. ReithD
- 16A. RoaldsøyM
Form going into Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam
Groningen
Eredivisie
- D2-2away to NEC Nijmegen25 October 2026
- L2-5Ajax18 October 2026
- W5-1away to Excelsior11 October 2026
Sparta Rotterdam
Eredivisie
- L1-2Ajax25 October 2026
- W3-2Willem II17 October 2026
- D3-3away to GO Ahead Eagles10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Groningen | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 29 | 28 | +1 | 15 |
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 29 | -8 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam
Groningen and Sparta Rotterdam have met 7 times in the records we hold, Sparta Rotterdam has won 6 of them to Groningen's 1.
The record
Sparta Rotterdam won the last one 3–2 on 1 Nov 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Groningen | 1 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 18 |
| Sparta Rotterdam | 6 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 5 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 23 goals, an average of 3.29 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 1 Nov 2026
EredivisieGroningen 2–3 Sparta Rotterdam - 31 Jan 2026
EredivisieSparta Rotterdam 2–0 Groningen - 30 Oct 2025
KNVB BekerSparta Rotterdam 5–2 Groningen - 19 Oct 2025
EredivisieGroningen 0–2 Sparta Rotterdam - 2 Feb 2025
EredivisieSparta Rotterdam 1–0 Groningen - 9 Nov 2024
EredivisieGroningen 1–0 Sparta Rotterdam - 28 May 2023
EredivisieGroningen 0–5 Sparta Rotterdam
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Groningen's attack rates 31% above Sparta Rotterdam's, and Groningen concede 9% fewer than Sparta Rotterdam. That gives Groningen the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Groningen | 0.97 | 1.28 |
| Sparta Rotterdam | 0.74 | 1.41 |
Leading scorers: Groningen and Sparta Rotterdam
Groningen
GoalsAssists
- B. Willumsson91
- T. van Bergen83
Sparta Rotterdam
GoalsAssists
- M. Zonneveld72
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sparta Rotterdam won 3–2 at Groningen. The model had leaned towards a win for Groningen at 59% and given a win for Sparta Rotterdam 20%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Jacob Ondrejka 1' for Groningen, Cedric Hatenboer 15' for Sparta Rotterdam, Milan Zonneveld 25' for Sparta Rotterdam, Thom Van Bergen 29' for Groningen, Andrej Kostić 85' for Sparta Rotterdam. On expected goals it finished 2.18–2.48.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Groningen a 7.1% chance to finish in the top four: 8.0% after a win, 5.5% after a draw, 4.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 4.3%, 2.8 points lower than before the match.
For Sparta Rotterdam the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 39.6% going in: 30.0% after a win, 37.8% after a draw, 42.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 30.0%, 9.6 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Eredivisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.