Livingston vs Arbroath Championship prediction & result
Final score: Livingston 1-0 Arbroath.
Before kick-off the model made it 59% Livingston, 23% draw, 18% Arbroath — fair odds of 1.69, 4.35 and 5.56.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Livingston at 59%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 28J. Prior
- 22J. Doherty
- 23B. Kabongolo
- 5R. McGowan
- 4J. Wilkie
- 8S. Pittman
- 20E. Danso
- 39L. Polworth
- 10S. Nicholson
- 9R. Muirhead
- 7T. Sinclair
- 14J. Hamilton
- 3B. Fati
- 6A. Denholm
- 15C. MacPherson
- 16C. Palmer
- 17S. May
- 19B. van Hoeven
- 25B. Anderson
- 30S. Blaney
- 1A. McAdams
- 16C. Watson
- 5T. O'Brien
- 22C. Dewar
- 4B. Paterson
- 12S. Stewart
- 25J. MacIntyre
- 17D. Reid
- 11R. Dow
- 14M. McKenna
- 10G. Reilly
- 21J. Pettigrew
- 3C. Hamilton
- 7D. Gold
- 9A. Winter
- 26S. Mackie
- 19C. Daly
Form going into Livingston vs Arbroath
Livingston
Championship
- D0-0away to Dunfermline17 October 2026
Arbroath
Championship
- L0-2away to Inverness CT17 October 2026
- L1-2Morton10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Scotland Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Livingston | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 12 | +9 | 24 |
| 8 | Arbroath | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Livingston vs Arbroath
- 29 August 2026Arbroath 1–0 LivingstonChampionship
- 5 July 2021Livingston 4–0 ArbroathFriendlies Clubs
The result against the call
Livingston beat Arbroath 1–0. The model had made a win for Livingston its most likely outcome, at 59%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goal: R. McGowan 90+2' for Livingston. Sent off: M. McKenna (Arbroath) 90'.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Livingston a 37.5% chance to finish in the top four: 40.1% after a win, 33.1% after a draw, 29.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 40.1%, 2.6 points higher than before the match.
For Arbroath the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 35.6% going in: 26.6% after a win, 34.1% after a draw, 37.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 37.7%, 2.1 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Livingston v Arbroath has moved
First published on 10 Oct at 40% / 28% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 59% / 23% / 18%: the biggest move is Livingston's chance of winning, up 19 points.
- Livingston win59%▲ +19
- Draw23%▼ −5
- Arbroath win18%▼ −14
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.