7 November 2026, 12:30 UTC

Wrexham vs Wolves Championship prediction & result

Racecourse Ground, Wrexham
Referee: Andrew Kitchen
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Wrexham 1-1 Wolves.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Wrexham, 28% draw, 37% Wolves — fair odds of 2.86, 3.57 and 2.70.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Wolves at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Wrexham4%Draw92%Wolves4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

25'
⚽Adam Armstrongassist: Yacouba Nasser Djiga
⚽Lewis O'Brienassist: Issa Kabore
27'
30'
Toti Gomes
Jacques Ekomié
54'
61'
André
Philip John Parkinson
61'
64'
🔁Rodrigo Gomesout: Rafiki Said Ahamada
🔁Oliver Rathboneout: George Thomason
64'
75'
🔁Mateus Maneout: Thomas Doyle
75'
🔁Toti Gomesout: Hugo Bueno
🔁Kieffer Mooreout: B. Cadamarteri
77'
🔁Benjamin Whitemanout: Matty James
77'
🔁George Dobsonout: Ben Sheaf
77'
🔁Issa Kaboreout: Danny Imray
81'
85'
🔁Fer Lópezout: Jean-Ricner Bellegarde
85'
🔁Adam Armstrongout: Sean Neave
Matty James
86'

Match stats — Wrexham vs Wolves

40%Possession60%
6Shots22
3On target5
2Corners7
1.21xG1.47

Goals against chances

Wrexham1 from 1.21 xGabout what the chances were worth
Wolves1 from 1.47 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Wrexham 3-5-1-1
  • 22A. PattersonG
  • 4M. CleworthD
  • 6J. WorrallD
  • 2C. DoyleD
  • 12I. KaboréM
  • 15G. DobsonM
  • 8B. WhitemanM
  • 20O. RathboneM
  • 3J. EkomiéM
  • 27L. O'BrienM
  • 19K. MooreF
Substitutes
  • 21D. WardG
  • 26Z. VynerD
  • 14G. ThomasonM
  • 18B. SheafM
  • 47R. LongmanM
  • 37M. JamesM
  • 30Daniel Edward Peter ImrayD
  • 5D. HyamD
  • 11B. CadamarteriF
Coach: P. Parkinson
Wolves 4-2-3-1
  • 1José SáG
  • 38J. TchatchouaD
  • 34N. DjigaD
  • 37L. KrejčíD
  • 24Toti GomesD
  • 7AndréM
  • 5M. MunetsiM
  • 21Rodrigo GomesM
  • 28Fer LópezM
  • 36M. ManeM
  • 10A. ArmstrongF
Substitutes
  • 2K. TrippierD
  • 23T. ChirewaF
  • 3Hugo BuenoD
  • 27J. BellegardeM
  • 20T. DoyleM
  • 15Y. MosqueraD
  • 14S. NeaveF
  • 13João VirgíniaG
  • 19R. SaïdF
Coach: César Peixoto

Form going into Wrexham vs Wolves

Wrexham

Championship

  • W2-0Middlesbrough4 November 2026
  • L0-1away to Sheffield Utd30 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Blackburn24 October 2026
  • W4-1Preston17 October 2026

Wolves

Championship

  • W2-1away to Bristol City4 November 2026
  • W3-0Cardiff31 October 2026
  • W1-0Watford24 October 2026
  • D1-1Portsmouth20 October 2026

What these results say

  • Wrexham conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Wrexham had two goals or fewer.
  • Wolves went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Wolves scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Wolves won 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Wrexham154651820-218
4Wolves158432618+828

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Wrexham and Wolves

Wrexham

GoalsAssists

  • K. Moore52

Wolves

GoalsAssists

  • Fer López63

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Wrexham and Wolves drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Wolves at 37% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Adam Armstrong 25' for Wolves, Lewis O'Brien 27' for Wrexham. On expected goals it finished 1.21–1.47.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Wolves a 23.4% chance to finish in the top two: 27.6% after a win, 21.6% after a draw, 19.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 21.6%, 1.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Wrexham v Wolves has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 40% / 27% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 35% / 28% / 37%: the biggest move is Wrexham's chance of winning, down 5 points.

  1. Wrexham win35%▼ −5
  2. Draw28%▲ +1
  3. Wolves win37%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.