7 November 2026, 15:00 UTC

QPR vs Lincoln Championship prediction & result

Loftus Road, London
Referee: Bobby Madley
Full time2 – 1

Final score: QPR 2-1 Lincoln.

Before kick-off the model made it 51% QPR, 26% draw, 23% Lincoln — fair odds of 1.96, 3.85 and 4.35.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

QPR at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

QPR97%Draw3%Lincoln0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

1'
Conor McGrandles
Paul Smyth
8'
⚽Richard Koneassist: Boy Kemper
11'
29'
⚽Dom Jefferiesassist: F. Draper
33'
Yunus Konak
59'
🔁Mikkel Ladefogedout: Robert Nicholas Street
🔁Harvey Valeout: Ilias Chair
59'
🔁Kwame Pokuout: Karamoko Dembélé
69'
🔁Boy Kemperout: Dennis Cirkin
69'
73'
🔁Yunus Konakout: Tom Bayliss
73'
🔁Reeco Hackett-Fairchildout: Thomas Hamer
🔁Paul Smythout: Koki Saito
77'
🔁Richard Koneout: Justin Obikwu
77'
⚽Glen Kamaraassist: Ilias Chair
80'
83'
🔁Dom Jefferiesout: Isaac Olaofe
83'
🔁Daniel Oyegokeout: Chiedozie Ogbene
Dennis Cirkin
90+3'

Match stats — QPR vs Lincoln

69%Possession31%
20Shots12
4On target3
6Corners2
1.65xG1.2

Goals against chances

QPR2 from 1.65 xGabout what the chances were worth
Lincoln1 from 1.20 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

QPR 4-2-3-1
  • 1P. CharlesG
  • 2K. AdamsonD
  • 3J. DunneD
  • 5R. EdwardsD
  • 12B. KemperD
  • 40J. VaraneM
  • 18G. KamaraM
  • 17K. PokuM
  • 20H. ValeM
  • 11P. SmythM
  • 22R. KoneF
Substitutes
  • 13C. WardG
  • 6J. Clarke-SalterD
  • 19D. CirkinD
  • 10I. ChairM
  • 7K. DembéléM
  • 26Rayan Jawad KolliF
  • 4L. MorrisonD
  • 25Justin Patrick Nnamdi ObikwuF
  • 14K. SaitoF
Coach: Julien Stéphan
Lincoln 4-4-2
  • 1G. WickensG
  • 33D. OyegokeD
  • 25D. ElereweD
  • 15S. BradleyD
  • 3A. ReachD
  • 7R. HackettM
  • 14C. McGrandlesM
  • 26Y. KonakM
  • 16D. JefferiesM
  • 34F. DraperF
  • 11M. LadefogedF
Substitutes
  • 4A. CoubișD
  • 46J. GauciG
  • 22T. HamerD
  • 27C. OgbeneF
  • 19I. OlaofeF
  • 17R. StreetF
  • 6R. TowlerD
  • 8T. BaylissM
  • 24I. VarfolomeevM
Coach: T. Shaw

Form going into QPR vs Lincoln

QPR

Championship

  • D1-1Burnley3 November 2026
  • L1-4away to Southampton31 October 2026
  • W5-0Swansea24 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Birmingham17 October 2026

Lincoln

Championship

  • L0-1away to Watford3 November 2026
  • L1-3Birmingham31 October 2026
  • W4-1Burnley24 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Millwall17 October 2026

What these results say

  • QPR failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • QPR scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • QPR conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Lincoln conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Lincoln failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Lincoln scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8QPR156632418+624
21Lincoln154381526-1115

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: QPR and Lincoln

QPR

GoalsAssists

  • R. Kone51

Lincoln

No player in Championship's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

QPR beat Lincoln 2–1. The model had made a win for QPR its most likely outcome, at 51%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Richard Kone 11' for QPR, Dom Jefferies 29' for Lincoln, Glen Kamara 80' for QPR. On expected goals it finished 1.65–1.20.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Lincoln a 16.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 11.5% after a win, 15.7% after a draw, 18.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 18.4%, 1.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on QPR v Lincoln has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 49% / 27% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 51% / 26% / 23%: the biggest move is QPR's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. QPR win51%▲ +2
  2. Draw26%▼ −1
  3. Lincoln win23%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.