7 November 2026, 15:00 UTC

Preston vs Southampton Championship prediction & result

Deepdale, Preston
Referee: Tom Nield
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Preston 1-0 Southampton.

Before kick-off the model made it 18% Preston, 23% draw, 59% Southampton — fair odds of 5.56, 4.35 and 1.69.

Most likely scoreline: 0-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Southampton at 59%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Preston94%Draw6%Southampton0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Stanley Mills
3'
11'
🔁Keven Schlotterbeckout: Zach Abbott
Liam Lindsay
32'
⚽Jordan Thompson
33'
Andrew Hughes
37'
🔁Stanley Millsout: Ed Nolan
64'
🔁Andrew Hughesout: Caleb Wiley
64'
🔁Callum Langout: Delano Burgzorg
70'
🔁Alfie Devineout: Greg Docherty
70'
Ed Nolan
74'
74'
🔁James Breeout: Samuel Edozie
75'
🔁Welingtonout: Ryan Manning
80'
🔁Lewis Dobbinout: Divin Mubama
🔁Andrija Vukčevićout: Jordan Storey
88'
Thierry Small
89'

Match stats — Preston vs Southampton

22%Possession78%
15Shots23
2On target8
3Corners9
1.33xG1.57

Goals against chances

Preston1 from 1.33 xGabout what the chances were worth
Southampton0 from 1.57 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Preston 3-4-3
  • 21L. NichollsG
  • 24O. OffiahD
  • 6L. LindsayD
  • 16A. HughesD
  • 17S. MillsM
  • 23A. MoranM
  • 15J. ThompsonM
  • 3A. VukčevićM
  • 7A. DevineF
  • 10C. LangF
  • 11T. SmallF
Substitutes
  • 37D. BurgzorgF
  • 5G. DochertyM
  • 9J. ErabiF
  • 1D. IversenG
  • 44B. PottsM
  • 14J. StoreyD
  • 12C. WileyD
  • 32Ed NolanD
  • 35Isaac IrwinD
Coach: G. Alexander
Southampton 4-2-3-1
  • 1Daniel PeretzG
  • 14J. BreeD
  • 5J. StephensD
  • 13K. SchlotterbeckD
  • 34WelingtonD
  • 4F. DownesM
  • 30J. Ward-ProwseM
  • 27K. MatsukiM
  • 10F. AzazM
  • 7Léo ScienzaM
  • 11L. DobbinF
Substitutes
  • 25G. LongG
  • 3R. ManningD
  • 28D. MubamaF
  • 2M. RoerslevD
  • 53Barnaby WilliamsM
  • 18T. FellowsM
  • 23S. EdozieM
  • 26Cameron BraggM
  • 6Z. AbbottD
Coach: Tonda Eckert

Form going into Preston vs Southampton

Preston

Championship

  • L2-3Sheffield Utd3 November 2026
  • L0-2away to Stoke City31 October 2026
  • D1-1West Brom24 October 2026
  • L1-4away to Wrexham17 October 2026

Southampton

Championship

  • D1-1away to West Brom3 November 2026
  • W4-1QPR31 October 2026
  • W3-2away to West Ham24 October 2026
  • D0-0Bolton17 October 2026

What these results say

  • Preston did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Preston conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Preston scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Southampton went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Southampton scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Southampton conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
24Preston1522111330-178
7Southampton158432915+1424

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Preston vs Southampton

  • 2 May 2026Preston 1–3 SouthamptonChampionship
  • 1 November 2025Southampton 0–2 PrestonChampionship
  • 16 April 2024Southampton 3–0 PrestonChampionship
  • 25 October 2023Preston 2–2 SouthamptonChampionship
  • 21 September 2011Southampton 2–1 PrestonLeague Cup

The full Preston vs Southampton record →

Leading scorers: Preston and Southampton

Preston

No player in Championship's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.

Southampton

GoalsAssists

  • C. Larin70

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Preston beat Southampton 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Southampton at 59% and given a win for Preston 18%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 6 matches like this one. The goal: Jordan Thompson 33' for Preston. On expected goals it finished 1.33–1.57.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Preston a 87.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 82.4% after a win, 87.2% after a draw, 89.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 82.4%, 5.1 points lower than before the match.

For Southampton the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 44.6% going in: 47.4% after a win, 40.3% after a draw, 37.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 37.2%, 7.4 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Preston v Southampton has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 19% / 24% / 57% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 18% / 23% / 59%: the biggest move is Southampton's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Preston win18%▼ −1
  2. Draw23%▼ −1
  3. Southampton win59%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.