Watford vs Middlesbrough Championship prediction & result
Final score: Watford 0-0 Middlesbrough.
Before kick-off the model made it 23% Watford, 27% draw, 50% Middlesbrough — fair odds of 4.35, 3.70 and 2.00.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Middlesbrough at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Watford vs Middlesbrough
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1F. RavagliaG
- 15K. DiattaD
- 4K. KebenD
- 6M. PollockD
- 29Branimir MlačićD
- 33J. ZemuraD
- 39E. KayembeM
- 22M. PayeroM
- 17Iker BravoM
- 21Amin NabizadaF
- 20M. DoumbiaF
- 51Travis AkomeahD
- 26D. BachmannG
- 16M. BolaD
- 9L. KjerrumgaardF
- 7O. MaammaF
- 45S. MavididiF
- 23O. TraoréD
- 11R. VataF
- 24S. WalkerG
- 1R. VítekG
- 2C. BrittainD
- 4A. PhillipsD
- 29A. MalandaD
- 3S. ByramD
- 8R. McGreeM
- 10A. MorrisM
- 6S. BerhalterM
- 11A. Cozier-DuberryF
- 13D. StrelecF
- 16J. SarmientoF
- 14M. Peart-HarrisM
- 30Neto BorgesD
- 22K. JosephF
- 9T. ConwayF
- 19Leo CastledineM
- 31S. BrynnG
- 18C. BarronM
- 12L. AylingD
- 17M. ArfstenD
Form going into Watford vs Middlesbrough
Watford
Championship
- W1-0Lincoln3 November 2026
- L2-3away to Norwich31 October 2026
- L0-1away to Wolves24 October 2026
- W2-0Charlton17 October 2026
Middlesbrough
Championship
- L0-2away to Wrexham4 November 2026
- W3-0Charlton31 October 2026
- W5-1away to Bolton23 October 2026
- D2-2Cardiff17 October 2026
What these results say
- Watford scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Watford had two goals or fewer.
- Middlesbrough scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Middlesbrough conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Middlesbrough had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Watford | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 15 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 30 | 19 | +11 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Watford vs Middlesbrough
- 25 April 2026Middlesbrough 5–1 WatfordChampionship
- 1 November 2025Watford 3–0 MiddlesbroughChampionship
- 15 February 2025Middlesbrough 0–1 WatfordChampionship
- 5 October 2024Watford 2–1 MiddlesbroughChampionship
- 4 May 2024Middlesbrough 3–1 WatfordChampionship
- 30 September 2023Watford 2–3 MiddlesbroughChampionship
Leading scorers: Watford and Middlesbrough
Watford
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Middlesbrough
GoalsAssists
- W. Lankshear130
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Watford and Middlesbrough drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Middlesbrough at 50% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 0.39–2.17.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Watford a 39.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 31.4% after a win, 38.8% after a draw, 43.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 38.8%, 1.1 points lower than before the match.
For Middlesbrough the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 40.4% going in: 44.0% after a win, 38.0% after a draw, 32.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 38.0%, 2.4 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Watford v Middlesbrough has moved
First published on 24 Oct at 22% / 26% / 52% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 23% / 27% / 50%: the biggest move is Middlesbrough's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Watford win23%▲ +1
- Draw27%▲ +1
- Middlesbrough win50%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.