24 October 2026, 12:00 UTC

Naftan vs FC Isloch Minsk R. Premier League prediction & result

Atlant Stadium, Novopolotsk
Full time0 – 6

Final score: Naftan 0-6 FC Isloch Minsk R..

Before kick-off the model made it 19% Naftan, 22% draw, 59% FC Isloch Minsk R. — fair odds of 5.26, 4.55 and 1.69.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Isloch Minsk R. at 59%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Naftan0%Draw1%FC Isloch Minsk R.99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

5'
⚽Adeola Junior Adeyemi Olaleyeassist: Maksim Kovalevich
Andrei Lebedev
19'
27'
⚽Evgeni Yudchitsassist: Maksim Kovalevich
Roman khadzhiev
32'
45'
🔁Timofey Martynovout: Anton Shramchenko
🔁Ilya Seleznevout: Artem Drabatovich
45'
49'
⚽Aleksandr Svirepa (pen)
53'
Anton Shramchenko
60'
Maksim Kovalevich
🔁alexander savitskyout: Artem Voskoboynikov
64'
🔁Marlen Aymanovout: Timur Galimzyanov
64'
67'
⚽Anton Shramchenkoassist: Aleksandr Svirepa
69'
⚽Nikita·Patskoassist: Aleksandr Svirepa
70'
🔁Sergey Volkovout: Pavel Shevchenko
🔁Andrei Lebedevout: Aleksey Tumanov
74'
🔁K. Adamovichout: Vladislav Fezhenko
74'
74'
🔁Maksim Kovalevichout: aleksandr butko
74'
🔁Nikita·Patskoout: Godfrey Bitok Stephen
81'
🔁Ilya Skrobotovout: sergi abramishvili
Denis Sadovsky
83'
90'
Pavel Shevchenko
90'
⚽aleksandr butko

Line-ups

Naftan 5-4-1
  • 16D. SadovskiyG
  • 97V. ChernyavskiyD
  • 8A. StefanishinD
  • 5Andrey LebedevD
  • 69Roman khadzhievD
  • 9V. YakovlevD
  • 24I. SeleznevM
  • 50G. MafwentaM
  • 6K. AdamovichM
  • 10A. SavitskiyM
  • 30Marlen AymanovF
Substitutes
  • 88A. DrabatovichD
  • 22V. FezhenkoM
  • 57T. GalimzyanovM
  • 13A. KharitonovichG
  • 21K. KirkitskiyM
  • 20E. LeshchenokM
  • 11I. PranovichM
  • 25Jorge Garcia de la Torre ArmasF
  • 7A. TumanovD
Coach: Aleksandr Khrapkovskiy
FC Isloch Minsk R. 3-4-3
  • 1A. KlimovichG
  • 25A. MakarenkoD
  • 3I. TikhomirovD
  • 33I. SkrobotovD
  • 99E. YudchitsM
  • 7A. SvirepaM
  • 5S. VolkovM
  • 15N. PatskoM
  • 23M. KovalevichF
  • 19Adeola OlaleyeF
  • 11T. MartynovF
Substitutes
  • 17S. AbramishviliM
  • 88Nikita FadeevM
  • 70A. ButkoF
  • 10V. KhvashchinskiyF
  • 8A. ShramchenkoM
  • 74M. SachkovskiyM
  • 13G. StephenD
  • 28A. SvirskiyG
  • 22P. ShevchenkoM
Coach: D. Komarovskiy

Form going into Naftan vs FC Isloch Minsk R.

Naftan

Premier League

  • L0-1away to Torpedo Zhodino19 October 2026
  • W4-1Belshina10 October 2026

FC Isloch Minsk R.

Premier League

  • W4-2FC Minsk17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Belarus Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Naftan2845192470-4617
2FC Isloch Minsk R.2818735423+3161

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Naftan vs FC Isloch Minsk R.

  • 12 June 2026FC Isloch Minsk R. 3–1 NaftanPremier League
  • 7 February 2026FC Isloch Minsk R. 1–0 NaftanFriendlies Clubs
  • 29 August 2025Naftan 2–2 FC Isloch Minsk R.Premier League
  • 19 April 2025FC Isloch Minsk R. 3–0 NaftanPremier League
  • 27 October 2024FC Isloch Minsk R. 3–0 NaftanPremier League
  • 1 June 2024Naftan 2–1 FC Isloch Minsk R.Premier League

The result against the call

FC Isloch Minsk R. won 6–0 at Naftan. The model had made a win for FC Isloch Minsk R. its most likely outcome, at 59%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Adeola Junior Adeyemi Olaleye 5' for FC Isloch Minsk R., Evgeni Yudchits 27' for FC Isloch Minsk R., Aleksandr Svirepa (penalty) 49' for FC Isloch Minsk R., Anton Shramchenko 67' for FC Isloch Minsk R., Nikita·Patsko 69' for FC Isloch Minsk R., aleksandr butko 90' for FC Isloch Minsk R..

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Naftan a 99.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 96.7% after a win, 99.3% after a draw, 99.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 99.8%, 0.6 points higher than before the match.

For FC Isloch Minsk R. the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 8.9% going in: 11.6% after a win, 3.8% after a draw, 2.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 11.6%, 2.7 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Naftan v FC Isloch Minsk R. has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 17% / 21% / 62% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 19% / 22% / 59%: the biggest move is FC Isloch Minsk R.'s chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Naftan win19%▲ +2
  2. Draw22%▲ +1
  3. FC Isloch Minsk R. win59%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.