2 November 2026, 17:00 UTC

Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce Ekstraklasa prediction & result

KGHM Zaglebie Arena, Lubin
Referee: Piotr Lasyk
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Zaglebie Lubin 1-0 Korona Kielce.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Zaglebie Lubin, 30% draw, 27% Korona Kielce — fair odds of 2.33, 3.33 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Zaglebie Lubin at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Ariel Mosor (OG)
4'
Roman Yakuba
30'
🔁Michał Nalepaout: Damian Michalski
39'
45'
🔁Daniel Bakout: Mariusz Stępiński
🔁Roman Yakubaout: Igor Orlikowski
45'
50'
Slobodan Rubezic
59'
🔁Simon Gustafssonout: Martin Remacle
59'
🔁Michael Ameyawout: Morgan Faßbender
🔁Sebastian Kerkout: Jakub·Sypek
61'
🔁Arkadiusz Wozniakout: Filip Szymczak
69'
🔁Mateusz Dziewiatowskiout: Jakub Kolan
69'
Damian Dąbrowski
73'
80'
🔁kamil jakubczykout: Stjepan Davidović
83'
🔁Marcel·Pieczekout: Dawid Błanik
Marcel Regula
90+1'

Match stats — Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce

25%Possession75%
11Shots17
1On target4
3Corners11
1.1xG0.81

Goals against chances

Zaglebie Lubin1 from 1.10 xGabout what the chances were worth
Korona Kielce0 from 0.81 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Zaglebie Lubin 4-2-3-1
  • 33Z. AlomerovićG
  • 39F. KocabaD
  • 25M. NalepaD
  • 5A. ŁawniczakD
  • 3R. YakubaD
  • 8D. DąbrowskiM
  • 20M. DziewiatowskiM
  • 16J. ĆorlukaM
  • 37S. KerkM
  • 44M. RegułaM
  • 11A. WoźniakF
Substitutes
  • 4D. MichalskiD
  • 26J. KolanM
  • 88M. MlinarićF
  • 31I. OrlikowskiD
  • 99C. PopielecM
  • 7J. SypekM
  • 17L. SzabóF
  • 18F. SzymczakF
  • 94M. UrbanskiD
Coach: L. Ojrzynski
Korona Kielce 4-3-3
  • 1X. DziekońskiG
  • 67N. BarczakD
  • 23S. RubežićD
  • 2A. MosórD
  • 6M. PięczekD
  • 86Simon GustafsonM
  • 18P. HellebrandM
  • 35Kamil JakubczykM
  • 30C. MenaF
  • 99Daniel BakF
  • 19M. AmeyawF
Substitutes
  • 9S. DavidovićM
  • 22M. FaßbenderF
  • 10NonoM
  • 87R. MamlaG
  • 11K. MatuszewskiD
  • 20K. MinuczycM
  • 8M. RemacleM
  • 24B. SmolarczykD
  • 14M. StępińskiF
Coach: R. Kolendowicz

Form going into Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce

Zaglebie Lubin

Ekstraklasa

  • D2-2away to Motor Lublin23 October 2026
  • W1-0Jagiellonia18 October 2026
  • L1-3away to Cracovia Krakow10 October 2026

Korona Kielce

Ekstraklasa

  • W1-0GKS Katowice24 October 2026
  • L1-6away to Lech Poznan18 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Pogon Szczecin11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Zaglebie Lubin146531817+123
11Korona Kielce145361421-718

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce

  • 6 February 2026Korona Kielce 1–2 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa
  • 1 August 2025Zaglebie Lubin 1–1 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
  • 16 March 2025Zaglebie Lubin 1–1 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
  • 15 September 2024Korona Kielce 2–0 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa
  • 3 March 2024Zaglebie Lubin 1–0 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
  • 27 August 2023Korona Kielce 2–0 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa

Leading scorers: Zaglebie Lubin and Korona Kielce

Zaglebie Lubin

GoalsAssists

  • M. Reguła50

Korona Kielce

GoalsAssists

  • M. Stępiński60

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Zaglebie Lubin beat Korona Kielce 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Zaglebie Lubin at 43%. The goal: Ariel Mosor (own goal) 4' for Zaglebie Lubin. On expected goals it finished 1.10–0.81.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Korona Kielce a 4.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 1.8% after a win, 3.9% after a draw, 5.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 5.1%, 0.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Ekstraklasa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Zaglebie Lubin v Korona Kielce has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 40% / 31% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 43% / 30% / 27%: the biggest move is Zaglebie Lubin's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Zaglebie Lubin win43%▲ +3
  2. Draw30%▼ −1
  3. Korona Kielce win27%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.