Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Radomiak Radom 3-1 Slask Wroclaw.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Radomiak Radom, 25% draw, 35% Slask Wroclaw — fair odds of 2.50, 4.00 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Radomiak Radom at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1F. MajchrowiczG
- 24Z. OuattaraD
- 14S. KingueD
- 72F. KoperskiD
- 97ConradoD
- 10R. AlvesM
- 77C. DonisM
- 82LuquinhasM
- 13J. GrzesikF
- 15A. TapsobaF
- 90Ronaldo AfonsoF
- 18ManuF
- 26Adrián DiéguezD
- 11F. GouréF
- 99B. GradeckiG
- 23K. KarasekM
- 44W. KoptasG
- 7C. NunnelyF
- 80Guilherme LuizF
- 28Romário BaróM
- 1K. NiemczyckiG
- 21A. Timossi AnderssonD
- 2D. SzalaD
- 5L. BaD
- 44M. MalecD
- 27Jan JurčecD
- 7P. Samiec-TalarM
- 20G. TomasiewiczM
- 17K. LinettyM
- 10M. DembéléF
- 19P. BanaszakF
- 26A. ZulewskiD
- 15J. YriarteM
- 25M. SzromnikG
- 77E. ShabaniM
- 9Ieltsin CamõesF
- 11L. MarjanacF
- 8Marc LlinaresD
- 4M. DijakovicD
- 88A. CiuckaM
Form going into Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw
Radomiak Radom
Ekstraklasa
- L3-4away to Pogon Szczecin24 October 2026
- L0-1away to Wisla Plock19 October 2026
- L2-3Motor Lublin12 October 2026
Slask Wroclaw
Ekstraklasa
- W2-0Wieczysta Kraków25 October 2026
- L2-3away to Motor Lublin17 October 2026
- L1-4Lech Poznan10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Radomiak Radom | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 17 | 29 | -12 | 14 |
| 17 | Slask Wroclaw | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw
- 8 February 2025Radomiak Radom 1–1 Slask WroclawEkstraklasa
- 14 December 2024Slask Wroclaw 1–2 Radomiak RadomEkstraklasa
- 29 October 2024Radomiak Radom 0–3 Slask WroclawCup
- 18 May 2024Slask Wroclaw 2–0 Radomiak RadomEkstraklasa
- 27 November 2023Radomiak Radom 0–1 Slask WroclawEkstraklasa
- 30 April 2023Slask Wroclaw 0–1 Radomiak RadomEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Radomiak Radom and Slask Wroclaw
Radomiak Radom
GoalsAssists
- J. Grzesik53
Slask Wroclaw
GoalsAssists
- P. Banaszak50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Radomiak Radom beat Slask Wroclaw 3–1. The model had made a win for Radomiak Radom its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Christos Donis 5' for Radomiak Radom, Przemyslaw Banaszak 6' for Slask Wroclaw, Jan Grzesik 49' for Radomiak Radom, Jan Grzesik 71' for Radomiak Radom. On expected goals it finished 2.37–2.28.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Radomiak Radom a 61.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 53.8% after a win, 65.2% after a draw, 70.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 53.8%, 7.9 points lower than before the match.
For Slask Wroclaw the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 41.4% going in: 31.1% after a win, 42.0% after a draw, 48.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 48.3%, 6.9 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Ekstraklasa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Radomiak Radom v Slask Wroclaw has moved
First published on 17 Oct at 41% / 26% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 40% / 25% / 35%: the biggest move is Slask Wroclaw's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Radomiak Radom win40%▼ −1
- Draw25%▼ −1
- Slask Wroclaw win35%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.