2 November 2026, 19:30 UTC

Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin Ekstraklasa prediction & result

zondacrypto Arena
Referee: Szymon Marciniak
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Raków Częstochowa 3-1 Pogon Szczecin.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Raków Częstochowa, 27% draw, 38% Pogon Szczecin — fair odds of 2.86, 3.70 and 2.63.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Pogon Szczecin at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Raków Częstochowa95%Draw5%Pogon Szczecin0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

5'
⚽Darko Churlinovassist: Jan Bieganski
Lamine Diaby Fadiga
16'
⚽Lamine Diaby Fadiga (pen)
40'
45+2'
Jordi Sánchez
⚽Patryk Makuchassist: Mahir Emreli
47'
57'
🔁Isaiah·Eichieout: Hussein Ali
🔁Vladyslav Kocherginout: Marko Bulat
59'
🔁Lamine Diaby Fadigaout: Tomasz Pienko
60'
Fran Tudor
62'
64'
Lukas Willen
🔁Mahir Emreliout: Oliwier Kwiatkowski
71'
72'
🔁Paul Omo Mukairuout: Jean-Pierre Nsame
72'
🔁Jordi Sánchezout: Kamil Grosicki
⚽Bogdan Racovitanassist: Erick Otieno
73'
78'
Jan Bieganski
🔁Erick Otienoout: Adin molnar
79'
🔁Jean Carlosout: Jakub Jendryka
79'
85'
🔁Kellyn Acostaout: Rajmund Molnár
90'
Lukas Willen
90+4'
Valentin Cojocaru
⚽Tomasz Pienko
90+7'

Match stats — Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin

61%Possession39%
18Shots8
5On target1
7Corners6
2.76xG0.63

Goals against chances

Raków Częstochowa3 from 2.76 xGabout what the chances were worth
Pogon Szczecin1 from 0.63 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Raków Częstochowa 3-4-3
  • 71T. KarićG
  • 7F. TudorD
  • 25B. RacovițanD
  • 4S. SvarnasD
  • 20Jean CarlosM
  • 6O. RepkaM
  • 10V. KocherginM
  • 26E. OtienoM
  • 80L. Diaby-FadigaF
  • 11M. EmreliF
  • 9P. MakuchF
Substitutes
  • 29W. Å»ołneczkoG
  • 99Adam BasseF
  • 3A. BrorssonD
  • 39I. BrusbergF
  • 5M. BulatM
  • 15O. KwiatkowskiM
  • 88A. MolnarM
  • 21T. PieńkoM
  • 23K. StruskiM
Coach: Dawid Szwarga
Pogon Szczecin 4-4-2
  • 77V. CojocaruG
  • 20Isaiah·EichieD
  • 13D. KeramitsisD
  • 41A. SzalaiD
  • 29L. WillenD
  • 21D. ChurlinovM
  • 3K. AcostaM
  • 6J. BiegańskiM
  • 18P. MukairuM
  • 22Jordi SánchezF
  • 35M. WojciechowskiF
Substitutes
  • 9R. MolnárF
  • 17J. NsameF
  • 75A. OssowskiD
  • 47N. LawaM
  • 7M. JuwaraF
  • 11K. GrosickiM
  • 98M. DabrowskiG
  • 30J. CzaplinskiM
  • 10F. ČuićF
Coach: Óscar García

Form going into Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin

Raków Częstochowa

Ekstraklasa

  • L1-2away to Wisla Krakow24 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Wieczysta Kraków16 October 2026
  • L1-4GKS Katowice9 October 2026

Pogon Szczecin

Ekstraklasa

  • W4-3Radomiak Radom24 October 2026
  • W1-0away to GKS Katowice17 October 2026
  • W2-0Korona Kielce11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Raków Częstochowa1440102331-812
4Pogon Szczecin137332015+524

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin

  • 8 March 2026Raków Częstochowa 2–0 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
  • 31 August 2025Pogon Szczecin 2–0 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
  • 19 April 2025Pogon Szczecin 1–0 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
  • 20 October 2024Raków Częstochowa 1–0 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
  • 11 May 2024Raków Częstochowa 2–1 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
  • 12 November 2023Pogon Szczecin 1–1 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa

Leading scorers: Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin

Raków Częstochowa

GoalsAssists

  • P. Makuch81

Pogon Szczecin

GoalsAssists

  • Jordi Sánchez91

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Raków Częstochowa beat Pogon Szczecin 3–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Pogon Szczecin at 38% and given a win for Raków Częstochowa 35%. The goals: Darko Churlinov 5' for Pogon Szczecin, Patryk Makuch 47' for Raków Częstochowa, Bogdan Racovitan 73' for Raków Częstochowa, Tomasz Pienko 90+7' for Raków Częstochowa. Sent off: Lukas Willen (Pogon Szczecin) 90', Valentin Cojocaru (Pogon Szczecin) 90+4'. On expected goals it finished 2.76–0.63.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Raków Częstochowa a 39.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 31.8% after a win, 41.0% after a draw, 43.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 31.8%, 7.4 points lower than before the match.

For Pogon Szczecin the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 21.5% going in: 26.6% after a win, 19.0% after a draw, 16.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 16.8%, 4.7 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Ekstraklasa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.