Motor Lublin vs Wisla Plock Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Motor Lublin 3-2 Wisla Plock.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Motor Lublin, 27% draw, 25% Wisla Plock — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Motor Lublin at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Motor Lublin vs Wisla Plock
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 33G. TratnikG
- 29T. SantosD
- 18B. BereszyńskiD
- 4T. PlavotićD
- 24F. LubereckiD
- 27Y. BourhaneM
- 30M. NdiayeM
- 9Rony LopesM
- 8C. SimonM
- 11Fábio RonaldoM
- 10K. CzubakF
- 5A. AkatovD
- 22M. ZlomanczukM
- 39M. BartošD
- 90Dominik GregorskiF
- 23F. HaxhaM
- 6M. ŁęgowskiM
- 17K. LukoszekM
- 2Paskal Konrad MeyerD
- 71M. PopaG
- 12R. LeszczyńskiG
- 4M. Haglind-SangréD
- 35M. KamińskiD
- 34Afonso SilvaD
- 21Ž. RogeljM
- 17A. RadwańskiM
- 3M. FlisM
- 19D. GallapeniM
- 57S. AkereF
- 20Ł. SekulskiF
- 7O. KobackiF
- 24Nikodem RogowskiD
- 18J. PrširM
- 41M. WięckowskiD
- 22K. BlaszkiewiczF
- 26J. BurekG
- 10S. HamulićF
- 16F. HiszpańskiM
- 91G. KuchkoM
- 6K. PomorskiM
Form going into Motor Lublin vs Wisla Plock
Motor Lublin
Ekstraklasa
- W2-1away to Cracovia Krakow30 October 2026
- D2-2Zaglebie Lubin23 October 2026
- W3-2Slask Wroclaw17 October 2026
- W3-2away to Radomiak Radom12 October 2026
Wisla Plock
Ekstraklasa
- D2-2Piast Gliwice31 October 2026
- L0-1away to Jagiellonia25 October 2026
- W1-0Radomiak Radom19 October 2026
- L0-3away to Wieczysta Kraków9 October 2026
What these results say
- Motor Lublin went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Motor Lublin scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Motor Lublin conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Wisla Plock failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Wisla Plock conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Motor Lublin | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 19 |
| 12 | Wisla Plock | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Motor Lublin vs Wisla Plock
- 10 May 2026Wisla Plock 0–4 Motor LublinEkstraklasa
- 8 November 2025Motor Lublin 1–1 Wisla PlockEkstraklasa
- 11 July 2025Motor Lublin 2–2 Wisla PlockFriendlies Clubs
- 10 January 2025Motor Lublin 2–1 Wisla PlockFriendlies Clubs
- 5 May 2024Wisla Plock 1–0 Motor LublinI Liga
- 5 November 2023Motor Lublin 2–2 Wisla PlockI Liga
Leading scorers: Motor Lublin and Wisla Plock
Motor Lublin
GoalsAssists
- K. Czubak70
- M. Ndiaye43
Wisla Plock
No player in Ekstraklasa's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Motor Lublin beat Wisla Plock 3–2. The model had made a win for Motor Lublin its most likely outcome, at 48%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Bartosz Bereszyński 2' for Motor Lublin, Afonso Silva 31' for Wisla Plock, Olaf Kobacki 33' for Wisla Plock, Mbaye Jacques Ndiaye 54' for Motor Lublin, Karol Czubak 90+7' for Motor Lublin. Sent off: Marcus Haglind Sangre (Wisla Plock) 81'. On expected goals it finished 4.60–1.18.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Motor Lublin a 10.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 6.7% after a win, 10.7% after a draw, 14.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 6.7%, 3.3 points lower than before the match.
For Wisla Plock the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 22.1% going in: 13.3% after a win, 20.9% after a draw, 25.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 25.6%, 3.5 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Ekstraklasa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.