24 October 2026, 12:30 UTC

Budapest Honved vs Debreceni VSC NB I prediction & result

Bozsik Arena, Budapest
Referee: I. Kovacs
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Budapest Honved 0-2 Debreceni VSC.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Budapest Honved, 26% draw, 37% Debreceni VSC — fair odds of 2.70, 3.85 and 2.70.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Budapest Honved at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Budapest Honved0%Draw1%Debreceni VSC99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

5'
Adrián Guerrero Aguilar
8'
Plamen Andreev
15'
•Ákos Szendrei
🔁Ádám Szamosiout: Csontos Dominik Zoltan
45'
45'
🔁Imre egriout: Vilmos Csanad Denes
54'
⚽blaz boskovicassist: Balazs Dzsudzsak
🔁Patrik Pinteout: Kevin Sydney Kantor
57'
🔁Pablo García Ruizout: Ádám Gyurcsó
58'
59'
🔁Dominik Kocsisout: Sohan Baldoni
59'
🔁Sergi Samperout: Bence Batik
🔁I. Pekárout: Reda Eddarraj
73'
77'
🔁blaz boskovicout: florian cibla
🔁Tamás Somogyiout: Adi Alić
80'
84'
Sohan Baldoni
86'
🔁Maximilian Hofmannout: Dávid Patai
87'
⚽Vilmos Csanad Denes
Alberto Mari
88'
90+3'
Josua Mejias

Match stats — Budapest Honved vs Debreceni VSC

40%Possession60%
9Shots19
2On target7
3Corners4
0.66xG1.55

Goals against chances

Budapest Honved0 from 0.66 xGless than the chances were worth
Debreceni VSC2 from 1.55 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Budapest Honved 4-1-4-1
  • 31O. HadžikićG
  • 33O. SafronovD
  • 44Á. BakiD
  • 4A. SzabóD
  • 11S. HangyaD
  • 99I. PekárM
  • 17P. PinteM
  • 30T. SomogyiM
  • 40Adam SzamosiM
  • 3P. GarciaM
  • 45Alberto MaríF
Substitutes
  • 52D. BoldorD
  • 5D. CsontosD
  • 1G. DúzsG
  • 80R. EddarrajM
  • 9Á. GyurcsóF
  • 72K. KallaiD
  • 49B. PauljevićD
  • 7A. ZuigeberF
  • 19A. AlićF
Coach: M. Jacobacci
Debreceni VSC 4-2-3-1
  • 1P. AndreevG
  • 4J. MejíasD
  • 28M. HofmannD
  • 26Á. LangD
  • 3Adrián GuerreroD
  • 16Sergi SamperM
  • 6B. BoškovićM
  • 19D. KocsisM
  • 10B. DzsudzsákM
  • 24I. EgriM
  • 11Á. SzendreiF
Substitutes
  • 96J. DacostaD
  • 97C. DenesF
  • 12B. ErdélyiG
  • 66J. JannehM
  • 72R. KellerD
  • 90Bálint TuskaG
  • 99F. CiblaM
  • 5B. BatikD
  • 25S. BaldoniF
Coach: Gert Remmel

Form going into Budapest Honved vs Debreceni VSC

Budapest Honved

NB I

  • W1-0away to Nyiregyhaza17 October 2026
  • D1-1Ujpest11 October 2026

Debreceni VSC

NB I

  • W3-0Zalaegerszegi TE18 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Ferencvarosi TC10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

NB I table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Budapest Honved123541619-314
4Debreceni VSC136432418+622

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Budapest Honved vs Debreceni VSC

  • 30 October 2025Debreceni VSC 1–2 Budapest HonvedMagyar Kupa
  • 13 May 2023Debreceni VSC 0–0 Budapest HonvedNB I
  • 19 February 2023Budapest Honved 2–3 Debreceni VSCNB I
  • 1 October 2022Debreceni VSC 4–3 Budapest HonvedNB I
  • 5 March 2022Budapest Honved 4–2 Debreceni VSCNB I
  • 6 November 2021Debreceni VSC 5–3 Budapest HonvedNB I

Leading scorers: Budapest Honved and Debreceni VSC

Budapest Honved

No player in NB I's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.

Debreceni VSC

GoalsAssists

  • Á. Szendrei62
  • B. Dzsudzsák42
  • C. Denes33

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Debreceni VSC won 2–0 at Budapest Honved. The goals: blaz boskovic 54' for Debreceni VSC, Vilmos Csanad Denes 87' for Debreceni VSC. On expected goals it finished 0.66–1.55.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Budapest Honved a 25.9% chance to finish in the bottom two: 20.4% after a win, 27.1% after a draw, 29.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 29.6%, 3.7 points higher than before the match.

For Debreceni VSC the question was the chance to finish in the top three, 14.9% going in: 18.5% after a win, 13.9% after a draw, 11.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 18.5%, 3.6 points higher than before the match.

Read from our NB I season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.