Kilmarnock vs Motherwell Premiership prediction & result
Final score: Kilmarnock 3-2 Motherwell.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% Kilmarnock, 25% draw, 41% Motherwell — fair odds of 2.94, 4.00 and 2.44.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Scottish Premiership predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Motherwell at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Kilmarnock vs Motherwell
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12C. FerrieG
- 3Michael-John Kamson-KamaraD
- 4C. McCarthyD
- 14G. StangerD
- 21M. Schjønning-LarsenD
- 49B. RiceM
- 18T. LoweryM
- 8E. RingM
- 10T. John-JulesM
- 11G. KiltieM
- 9J. HugillF
- 2J. BrandonD
- 20N. CleșcencoF
- 29D. DanielsF
- 6R. DeasD
- 58N. MantlG
- 5M. O'HaraM
- 19J. MeierD
- 27I. OwenF
- 36A. TshibolaM
- 1A. PaulsenG
- 7T. SparrowD
- 2S. O'DonnellD
- 5M. MoormannD
- 45M. EmmanuelD
- 8L. FadingerM
- 71J. HodgeM
- 18Tawanda Jethro MaswanhiseM
- 11A. LowryM
- 19I. SaidM
- 47S. Palmer-HouldenF
- 22J. KoutroumbisD
- 63D. LevittM
- 21M. ConnellyG
- 6J. McGheeD
- 77W. VogtF
- 13J. KangaM
- 3J. Girdwood-ReichD
- 15E. BjörgólfssonF
- 4Jamie Knight-LebelD
Form going into Kilmarnock vs Motherwell
Kilmarnock
All competitions we cover
- L1-3away to Rangers10 October 2026
- D1-1Heart of Midlothian19 September 2026
- W1-0away to Hibernian15 September 2026
- D0-0away to Aberdeen5 September 2026
- L0-1St Mirren2 September 2026
Motherwell
All competitions we cover
- L0-2Celtic11 October 2026
- L1-2away to Dundee19 September 2026
- L0-4Aberdeen15 September 2026
- L0-1away to Rangers5 September 2026
- W3-0Dundee United2 September 2026
What these results say
- Kilmarnock failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Kilmarnock had two goals or fewer.
- Motherwell failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Motherwell conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 29 | -16 | 9 |
| 9 | Motherwell | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Kilmarnock vs Motherwell
- 24 January 2026Motherwell 4–0 KilmarnockPremiership
- 22 November 2025Kilmarnock 1–3 MotherwellPremiership
- 30 August 2025Motherwell 2–2 KilmarnockPremiership
- 14 May 2025Motherwell 3–0 KilmarnockPremiership
- 5 April 2025Kilmarnock 2–0 MotherwellPremiership
- 8 January 2025Kilmarnock 0–0 MotherwellPremiership
Leading scorers: Kilmarnock and Motherwell
Kilmarnock
GoalsAssists
- G. Kiltie30
Motherwell
GoalsAssists
- A. Lowry31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Kilmarnock beat Motherwell 3–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Motherwell at 41% and given a win for Kilmarnock 34%. The goals: Greg Kiltie 2' for Kilmarnock, Alex·Lowry 17' for Motherwell, Sebastian Palmer-Houlden 56' for Motherwell, Tyreece John-Jules 58' for Kilmarnock, Greg Kiltie 69' for Kilmarnock. On expected goals it finished 1.56–2.46.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Kilmarnock a 73.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 68.3% after a win, 73.9% after a draw, 78.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 68.3%, 5.1 points lower than before the match.
For Motherwell the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 19.3% going in: 13.7% after a win, 20.6% after a draw, 24.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 24.5%, 5.2 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Premiership season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Kilmarnock v Motherwell has moved
First published on 3 Oct at 33% / 27% / 40% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 34% / 25% / 41%: the biggest move is the draw, down 2 points.
- Kilmarnock win34%▲ +1
- Draw25%▼ −2
- Motherwell win41%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.