Hibernian
vs
Kilmarnock
Premiership prediction & result
Final score: Hibernian 0-1 Kilmarnock.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Hibernian, 28% draw, 28% Kilmarnock — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Hibernian 1.77, Kilmarnock 1.21.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Hibernian vs Kilmarnock
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hibernian at 44% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Hibernian vs Kilmarnock
Line-ups
- 1R. SallingerG
- 6J. KerrD
- 15J. IredaleD
- 27K. MegwaD
- 24J. DevaneyM
- 25F. PasslackM
- 8J. MulliganM
- 23C. WrightM
- 3A. MayorM
- 22A. ŠutoF
- 18T. KlidjeF
- 11J. NewellM
- 9N. LoweF
- 4G. HanleyD
- 7O. EldingF
- 14M. ChaiwaM
- 19N. CaddenM
- 10M. BoyleF
- 47A. AbdulaiM
- 35F. OwensG
- 1M. StryjekG
- 3Michael-John Kamson-KamaraD
- 4C. McCarthyD
- 14G. StangerD
- 8E. RingM
- 18T. LoweryM
- 49B. RiceM
- 21M. Schjønning-LarsenM
- 10T. John-JulesM
- 11G. KiltieM
- 9J. HugillF
- 5M. O'HaraM
- 19J. MeierD
- 7R. McKenzieM
- 20N. CleșcencoF
- 37C. BurkeF
- 2J. BrandonD
- 27I. OwenF
- 12C. FerrieG
- 29D. DanielsF
Form going into Hibernian vs Kilmarnock
Hibernian
- L1-2away to St Johnstone6 September 2026
- L1-3Heart of Midlothian3 September 2026
- W2-1away to Dundee30 August 2026
- W2-1away to Rangers9 August 2026
Kilmarnock
- D0-0away to Aberdeen5 September 2026
- L0-1St Mirren2 September 2026
- L0-4Dundee United29 August 2026
- L1-5Celtic9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Hibernian | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 6 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Hibernian vs Kilmarnock
- 4 April 2026Hibernian 3–0 KilmarnockPremiership
- 3 January 2026Kilmarnock 1–3 HibernianPremiership
- 10 August 2025Hibernian 2–2 KilmarnockPremiership
- 15 March 2025Kilmarnock 1–1 HibernianPremiership
- 29 December 2024Hibernian 1–0 KilmarnockPremiership
- 1 September 2024Kilmarnock 1–1 HibernianPremiership
Leading scorers: Hibernian and Kilmarnock
Hibernian
- C. Wright2 goals
- M. Boyle2 goals
- N. Lowe1 goals1 assists
Kilmarnock
No player in Premiership's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.77 goals for Hibernian and 1.21 for Kilmarnock; the game produced 0 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: George Stanger 40' (Kilmarnock).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1168 correct results out of 2477 settled predictions (47%), with 234 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hibernian the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Hibernian against 1.21 for Kilmarnock. Hibernian's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.89 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.73 for Kilmarnock.