Hibernian vs Kilmarnock Premiership prediction & result
Final score: Hibernian 0-1 Kilmarnock.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Hibernian, 26% draw, 27% Kilmarnock — fair odds of 2.13, 3.85 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Scottish Premiership predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Hibernian at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Hibernian vs Kilmarnock
Line-ups
- 1R. SallingerG
- 6J. KerrD
- 15J. IredaleD
- 27K. MegwaD
- 24J. DevaneyM
- 25F. PasslackM
- 8J. MulliganM
- 23C. WrightM
- 3A. MayorM
- 22A. ŠutoF
- 18T. KlidjeF
- 11J. NewellM
- 9N. LoweF
- 4G. HanleyD
- 7O. EldingF
- 14M. ChaiwaM
- 19N. CaddenM
- 10M. BoyleF
- 47A. AbdulaiM
- 35F. OwensG
- 1M. StryjekG
- 3Michael-John Kamson-KamaraD
- 4C. McCarthyD
- 14G. StangerD
- 8E. RingM
- 18T. LoweryM
- 49B. RiceM
- 21M. Schjønning-LarsenM
- 10T. John-JulesM
- 11G. KiltieM
- 9J. HugillF
- 5M. O'HaraM
- 19J. MeierD
- 7R. McKenzieM
- 20N. CleșcencoF
- 37C. BurkeF
- 2J. BrandonD
- 27I. OwenF
- 12C. FerrieG
- 29D. DanielsF
Form going into Hibernian vs Kilmarnock
Hibernian
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to St Johnstone6 September 2026
- L1-3Heart of Midlothian3 September 2026
- W2-1away to Dundee30 August 2026
- L2-3Gent27 August 2026
- D0-0away to Gent20 August 2026
Kilmarnock
All competitions we cover
- D0-0away to Aberdeen5 September 2026
- L0-1St Mirren2 September 2026
- L0-4Dundee United29 August 2026
- L1-5Celtic9 August 2026
- L3-4away to St Johnstone2 August 2026
What these results say
- Hibernian failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hibernian scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hibernian conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kilmarnock did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Kilmarnock conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Hibernian | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 11 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 29 | -16 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Hibernian vs Kilmarnock
- 4 April 2026Hibernian 3–0 KilmarnockPremiership
- 3 January 2026Kilmarnock 1–3 HibernianPremiership
- 10 August 2025Hibernian 2–2 KilmarnockPremiership
- 15 March 2025Kilmarnock 1–1 HibernianPremiership
- 29 December 2024Hibernian 1–0 KilmarnockPremiership
Leading scorers: Hibernian and Kilmarnock
Hibernian
GoalsAssists
- C. Wright31
Kilmarnock
GoalsAssists
- G. Kiltie30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Kilmarnock won 1–0 at Hibernian. The model had leaned towards a win for Hibernian at 47% and given a win for Kilmarnock 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: George Stanger 40' for Kilmarnock. Sent off: Djenairo Daniels (Kilmarnock) 90+2'.
How the call on Hibernian v Kilmarnock has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 45% / 27% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 47% / 26% / 27%: the biggest move is Hibernian's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Hibernian win47%▲ +2
- Draw26%▼ −1
- Kilmarnock win27%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.