Falkirk vs Kilmarnock Premiership prediction & result
Final score: Falkirk 3-0 Kilmarnock.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Falkirk, 24% draw, 27% Kilmarnock — fair odds of 2.04, 4.17 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Falkirk at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Falkirk vs Kilmarnock
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 19S. BainG
- 22R. StrainD
- 15L. NeilsonD
- 5L. HendersonD
- 3L. McCannD
- 8B. SpencerM
- 16Finley Frank BarbrookM
- 23E. RossM
- 21D. MeļņiksM
- 42Owen EamesM
- 24J. MurrellF
- 1N. HogarthG
- 17S. TanserD
- 27C. McLeodM
- 14F. YeatsM
- 99C. FodreyM
- 4J. McMillanD
- 10C. SibbaldM
- 7Ben ParkinsonF
- 9R. MacIverF
- 12C. FerrieG
- 2J. BrandonD
- 4C. McCarthyD
- 14G. StangerD
- 21M. Schjønning-LarsenD
- 36A. TshibolaM
- 18T. LoweryM
- 8E. RingM
- 10T. John-JulesM
- 11G. KiltieM
- 9J. HugillF
- 29D. DanielsF
- 5M. O'HaraM
- 7R. McKenzieM
- 20N. CleșcencoF
- 19J. MeierD
- 6R. DeasD
- 58N. MantlG
- 3Michael-John Kamson-KamaraD
- 27I. OwenF
Form going into Falkirk vs Kilmarnock
Falkirk
Premiership
- W2-1away to Hibernian17 October 2026
Kilmarnock
Premiership
- W3-2Motherwell17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Falkirk | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 14 | +6 | 21 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 29 | -16 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Falkirk vs Kilmarnock
- 28 February 2026Falkirk 5–1 KilmarnockPremiership
- 20 December 2025Kilmarnock 0–1 FalkirkPremiership
- 1 November 2025Falkirk 3–1 KilmarnockPremiership
- 24 June 2022Falkirk 1–4 KilmarnockFriendlies Clubs
- 4 September 2021Kilmarnock 3–1 FalkirkChallenge Cup
- 6 October 2020Falkirk 3–0 KilmarnockLeague Cup
Leading scorers: Falkirk and Kilmarnock
Falkirk
GoalsAssists
- J. Murrell70
Kilmarnock
GoalsAssists
- G. Kiltie30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Falkirk beat Kilmarnock 3–0. The model had made a win for Falkirk its most likely outcome, at 49%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Cathal McCarthy (own goal) 29' for Falkirk, Jacob Murrell 38' for Falkirk, George Stanger (own goal) 68' for Falkirk. On expected goals it finished 2.08–1.89.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Falkirk a 33.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 27.8% after a win, 36.3% after a draw, 41.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 27.8%, 6.1 points lower than before the match.
For Kilmarnock the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 52.3% going in: 41.5% after a win, 51.8% after a draw, 58.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 58.6%, 6.3 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Premiership season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.