Mirassol
vs
Atletico Mineiro
Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Mirassol 0-0 Atletico Mineiro.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Mirassol, 31% draw, 30% Atletico Mineiro — fair odds of 2.56, 3.23 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Mirassol 1.20, Atletico Mineiro 0.98.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 37%, under 2.5: 63%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
More Brazilian Serie A predictions
Model insights: Mirassol vs Atletico Mineiro
Has the model earned this number?
Mirassol at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Mirassol vs Atletico Mineiro
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 22WalterG
- 32Igor FormigaD
- 34Joao VictorD
- 2Lucas OliveiraD
- 6ReinaldoD
- 25Neto Moura
- 27DenilsonM
- 96Carlos Eduardo
- 7ShaylonM
- 77AlessonM
- 30Bruno SantosF
- 90ThomazellaG
- 12Victor LuisD
- 20Daniel BorgesD
- 3Willian MachadoD
- 33EduardoM
- 80WallissonM
- 21Jose AldoM
- 10Chico KimM
- 17FernandinhoF
- 22EversonG
- 2NatanaelD
- 3L. DuarteD
- 4Ruan TressoldiD
- 6R. LodiD
- 17Igor GomesM
- 15K. CastanoM
- 28CuelloM
- 7FredM
- 11BernardM
- 9M. CassierraF
- 31RobertG
- 1Gabriel DelfimG
- 14Vitor HugoD
- 34Samuel
- 53Pedro LemosD
- 5AlexsanderM
- 10Gustavo ScarpaM
- 38IndioM
- 39M. CisseM
Form going into Mirassol vs Atletico Mineiro
Mirassol
Serie A
- W2-1away to Chapecoense3 November 2026
- L0-2away to Corinthians30 October 2026
- D1-1Sao Paulo24 October 2026
- W2-0Internacional16 October 2026
Atletico Mineiro
Serie A
- L0-1away to Botafogo5 November 2026
- L0-1Cruzeiro29 October 2026
- L2-3away to Flamengo26 October 2026
- W1-0Coritiba17 October 2026
What these results say
- Mirassol scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Mirassol conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Mirassol had two goals or fewer.
- Atletico Mineiro failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Atletico Mineiro conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Atletico Mineiro had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Mirassol | 35 | 10 | 11 | 14 | 39 | 48 | -9 | 41 |
| 7 | Atletico Mineiro | 35 | 14 | 9 | 12 | 44 | 40 | +4 | 51 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Mirassol vs Atletico Mineiro
- 16 May 2026Atletico Mineiro 3–1 MirassolSerie A
- 28 September 2025Atletico Mineiro 1–0 MirassolSerie A
- 26 April 2025Mirassol 2–2 Atletico MineiroSerie A
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Atletico Mineiro (7th, with Mirassol 14th), while our numbers lean to Mirassol. Mirassol rate 0.79 in attack and 1.09 in defence, Atletico Mineiro 0.80 and 0.96 (lower is better in defence): close enough that playing at home is what tips the call.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Mirassol a 12.7% chance to finish in the bottom four: 2.3% after a win, 14.9% after a draw, 24.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 14.9%, 2.2 points higher than before the match.
For Atletico Mineiro the question was the chance to finish in the top four: 3.6% after a win, under 1% after a draw, under 1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at under 1%.
Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Mirassol the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Mirassol against 0.98 for Atletico Mineiro. Mirassol's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.09 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/0.96 for Atletico Mineiro.
How the model reaches 39% for Mirassol to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Mirassol to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Mirassol's ratings take away 2 points and Atletico Mineiro's ratings take away 2 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage45%+9
- Both sides at this match's level43%−2
- Mirassol's ratings41%−2
- Atletico Mineiro's ratings39%−2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.