Hobro vs Esbjerg 1. Division prediction & result
Final score: Hobro 0-1 Esbjerg.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Hobro, 26% draw, 32% Esbjerg — fair odds of 2.38, 3.85 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All 1. Division (Denmark) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Hobro at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 25J. Dakir
- 20A. Noshe
- 3C. Enemark
- 4O. Dorph
- 18E. Sogaard
- 27L. Klitten
- 11R. Hauge
- 43A. Breum
- 8M. Pedersen
- 26T. Hansen
- 9F. Christensen
- 50J. Andersen
- 5M. Kannegaard
- 12M. Jacobsen
- 2M. Londal
- 17Z. Hyltoft
- 7O. Klitten
- 29O. Obasi
- 22M. Huldahl
- 16O. Meedom
- 1W. Lykke
- 17J. Lucena
- 25G. Bjerge
- 5J. Foss
- 19S. Strand
- 10O. Boesen
- 24G. Madsen
- 7N. Strunck
- 99A. Ahmad
- 80M. Brajanac
- 9J. Ampofo
- 34E. Jorgensen
- 4P. Tjornelund
- 32N. Blicher
- 8M. Maden
- 6L. Vigen
- 22B. Hvidt
- 18M. Hansen
Form going into Hobro vs Esbjerg
Hobro
1. Division
- D1-1away to Aalborg30 October 2026
- D2-2Vendsyssel FF23 October 2026
- L0-3away to FC Fredericia17 October 2026
- D1-1Kolding IF10 October 2026
Esbjerg
1. Division
- D1-1Hvidovre31 October 2026
- W2-1FC Fredericia24 October 2026
- D0-0away to Aarhus Fremad16 October 2026
- D3-3Aalborg10 October 2026
What these results say
- Hobro did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Hobro conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Hobro scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Esbjerg went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Esbjerg failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Esbjerg scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Denmark 1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Hobro | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 24 | -8 | 16 |
| 10 | Esbjerg | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Hobro vs Esbjerg
- 15 August 2026Esbjerg 1–2 Hobro1. Division
- 16 October 2025Esbjerg 1–1 Hobro1. Division
- 24 August 2025Hobro 2–0 Esbjerg1. Division
- 3 November 2024Esbjerg 3–2 Hobro1. Division
- 26 July 2024Hobro 3–6 Esbjerg1. Division
The result against the call
Esbjerg won 1–0 at Hobro. The model had leaned towards a win for Hobro at 42% and given a win for Esbjerg 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: J. Ampofo 25' for Esbjerg.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Hobro a 24.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 12.3% after a win, 27.1% after a draw, 39.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 39.5%, 15.2 points higher than before the match.
For Esbjerg the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 57.2% going in: 39.6% after a win, 56.9% after a draw, 68.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 39.6%, 17.6 points lower than before the match.
Read from our 1. Division season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Hobro v Esbjerg has moved
First published on 24 Oct at 44% / 26% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 42% / 26% / 32%: the biggest move is Hobro's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Hobro win42%▼ −2
- Draw26%=
- Esbjerg win32%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.