Regular Season - 15 · 14 November 2026, 15:00 UTC

Ayr Utd vs Raith Rovers Championship prediction & result

Somerset Park, Ayr
Referee: C. Stirling
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Ayr Utd 3-1 Raith Rovers.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% Ayr Utd, 27% draw, 39% Raith Rovers — fair odds of 2.94, 3.70 and 2.56.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: Ayr Utd 1.40, Raith Rovers 1.52.

Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.

Model confidence: Low.

Published · updated

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Model insights: Ayr Utd vs Raith Rovers

60%
Both teams to score
56%
Over 2.5 goals
44%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 12%1-2 9%2-1 8%

Has the model earned this number?

Raith Rovers at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Ayr Utd99%Draw1%Raith Rovers0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽K. Shanks
22'
⚽M. Rusassist: K. Shanks
29'
33'
K. Turner
47'
P. McMullan
51'
🔁K. Montaguout: L. Vaughan
51'
🔁K. Turnerout: C. Telfer
54'
⚽A. Dowdsassist: S. Tiffoney
62'
C. Telfer
⚽K. Shanks (pen)
63'
🔁N. McAllisterout: L. McBeth
64'
🔁K. Shanksout: O. Stirton
71'
🔁B. Summersout: M. McKenzie
71'
R. Taylor
73'
75'
🔁P. McMullanout: A. Lyall
🔁M. Rusout: T. Hatton
83'
🔁R. Taylorout: J. Murphy
83'

Form going into Ayr Utd vs Raith Rovers

Ayr Utd

Championship

  • L1-4away to Arbroath7 November 2026
  • W3-2Queen's Park31 October 2026
  • L0-1Partick16 October 2026
  • D1-1Dunfermline10 October 2026

Raith Rovers

Championship

  • D0-0Dunfermline6 November 2026
  • W4-0away to Arbroath31 October 2026
  • L0-2Inverness CT24 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Stenhousemuir17 October 2026

What these results say

  • Ayr Utd conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Ayr Utd failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Ayr Utd scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Raith Rovers failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Raith Rovers had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Scotland Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Ayr Utd145361719-218
3Raith Rovers157442112+925

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Ayr Utd vs Raith Rovers

  • 22 August 2026Raith Rovers 2–0 Ayr UtdChampionship
  • 27 March 2026Raith Rovers 3–0 Ayr UtdChampionship
  • 31 January 2026Ayr Utd 2–1 Raith RoversChampionship
  • 11 October 2025Raith Rovers 0–2 Ayr UtdChampionship
  • 9 August 2025Ayr Utd 0–1 Raith RoversChampionship
  • 5 April 2025Raith Rovers 1–0 Ayr UtdChampionship

Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Ayr Utd a 0.2% chance of the title and Raith Rovers 8.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Ayr Utd a 29.9% chance to finish in the bottom two: 24.0% after a win, 30.0% after a draw, 33.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 24.0%, 5.9 points lower than before the match.

For Raith Rovers the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 78.8% going in: 82.9% after a win, 78.1% after a draw, 73.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 73.7%, 5.1 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Ayr Utd Raith Rovers
0.44 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.48
2.63 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.96
1.40 Model expected goals (this match) 1.52

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Raith Rovers the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Ayr Utd against 1.52 for Raith Rovers. Ayr Utd's attack/defence rating is 0.44/2.63 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/1.96 for Raith Rovers.

Ayr Utd carry a model rating of 5.96 against 6.15 for Raith Rovers.

How the model reaches 39% for Raith Rovers to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Raith Rovers to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Ayr Utd's ratings add 5 points and Raith Rovers's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 39%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage29%−7
  3. Ayr Utd's ratings34%+5
  4. Raith Rovers's ratings39%+5

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.