Regular Season - 15 · 14 November 2026, 15:00 UTC

Stenhousemuir vs Queen's Park Championship prediction & result

Ochilview Park, Stenhousemuir
Referee: G. Soutar
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Stenhousemuir 2-0 Queen's Park.

Before kick-off the model made it 58% Stenhousemuir, 25% draw, 17% Queen's Park — fair odds of 1.72, 4.00 and 5.88.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (12%).

Expected goals: Stenhousemuir 1.89, Queen's Park 0.80.

Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.

Model confidence: High.

Published · updated

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Model insights: Stenhousemuir vs Queen's Park

47%
Both teams to score
50%
Over 2.5 goals
50%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-0 12%2-0 12%1-1 11%

Has the model earned this number?

Stenhousemuir at 58%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Stenhousemuir99%Draw1%Queen's Park0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

37'
S. Martin
42'
M. Shiels
⚽D. Carrick
45+1'
E. O'Reilly
63'
63'
🔁R. McLeanout: L. Longridge
63'
🔁C. Smithout: N. Todorov
⚽H. Kargboassist: E. O'Reilly
65'
🔁D. Carrickout: L. Lloyd
69'
🔁H. Kargboout: A. Shinnie
70'
🔁G. Stevensonout: L. Hodgkiss
79'
🔁E. O'Reillyout: C. Penman
79'
80'
🔁S. Martinout: L. Stewart
🔁M. Andersonout: L. O'Donnell
90'

Form going into Stenhousemuir vs Queen's Park

Stenhousemuir

Championship

  • L3-4away to Morton7 November 2026
  • L0-3Livingston30 October 2026
  • L0-1Dunfermline27 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Partick24 October 2026

Queen's Park

Championship

  • L0-1Partick7 November 2026
  • L2-3away to Ayr Utd31 October 2026
  • L0-1Dunfermline24 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Morton17 October 2026

What these results say

  • Stenhousemuir did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Stenhousemuir conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Stenhousemuir failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Queen's Park did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Queen's Park conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Queen's Park failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Scotland Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Stenhousemuir158251816+226
10Queen's Park152112825-177

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Stenhousemuir vs Queen's Park

  • 22 August 2026Queen's Park 0–2 StenhousemuirChampionship
  • 10 April 2021Stenhousemuir 1–3 Queen's ParkLeague Two
  • 28 November 2020Queen's Park 3–1 StenhousemuirLeague Two
  • 7 March 2020Stenhousemuir 0–0 Queen's ParkLeague Two
  • 4 January 2020Queen's Park 2–1 StenhousemuirLeague Two

Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Stenhousemuir a 4% chance of the title and Queen's Park 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Stenhousemuir a 34.9% chance to finish in the top four: 38.7% after a win, 28.7% after a draw, 26.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 38.7%, 3.8 points higher than before the match.

For Queen's Park the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 84.6% going in: 78.4% after a win, 84.3% after a draw, 86.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 86.9%, 2.3 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Stenhousemuir Queen's Park
0.44 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.3
2.21 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 2.64
1.89 Model expected goals (this match) 0.80

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Stenhousemuir the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Stenhousemuir against 0.80 for Queen's Park. Stenhousemuir's attack/defence rating is 0.44/2.21 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.3/2.64 for Queen's Park.

Stenhousemuir carry a model rating of 6.04 against 5.77 for Queen's Park.

How the model reaches 58% for Stenhousemuir to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Stenhousemuir to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Stenhousemuir's ratings add 8 points and Queen's Park's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 58%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level43%−1
  4. Stenhousemuir's ratings51%+8
  5. Queen's Park's ratings58%+7

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.