Regular Season - 15 · 14 November 2026, 15:00 UTC

Livingston vs Morton Championship prediction & result

The Home of the Set Fare Arena, Livingston
Referee: G. Irvine
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Livingston 2-0 Morton.

Before kick-off the model made it 65% Livingston, 20% draw, 15% Morton — fair odds of 1.54, 5.00 and 6.67.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).

Expected goals: Livingston 2.42, Morton 0.91.

Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.

Model confidence: High.

Published · updated

More Scottish Championship predictions

All Scottish Championship predictions →

Model insights: Livingston vs Morton

55%
Both teams to score
65%
Over 2.5 goals
35%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines2-0 11%2-1 10%3-0 9%

Has the model earned this number?

Livingston at 65%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Livingston99%Draw1%Morton0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽B. Kabongoloassist: J. Doherty
5'
⚽C. Montanoassist: R. Muirhead
43'
C. Montano
53'
🔁B. van Hoevenout: B. Anderson
56'
🔁C. Palmerout: A. Denholm
61'
R. Muirhead
62'
67'
🔁Z. Robinsonout: K. Robertson
🔁C. Montanoout: C. MacPherson
68'
🔁S. Nicholsonout: T. Sinclair
69'
75'
D. Borso
78'
M. Garrity
80'
G. Gillespie
86'
C. Ballantyne

Form going into Livingston vs Morton

Livingston

Championship

  • D1-1away to Inverness CT7 November 2026
  • W3-0away to Stenhousemuir30 October 2026
  • W1-0Arbroath24 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Dunfermline17 October 2026

Morton

Championship

  • W4-3Stenhousemuir7 November 2026
  • W3-2away to Partick31 October 2026
  • W2-0Queen's Park17 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Arbroath10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Livingston went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Livingston scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Livingston kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Morton won every one of these 4 matches.
  • Morton scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Morton conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Scotland Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Livingston157352112+924
9Morton144191625-913

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Livingston vs Morton

  • 11 September 2026Morton 1–4 LivingstonChampionship
  • 12 April 2025Morton 1–2 LivingstonChampionship
  • 25 February 2025Livingston 3–2 MortonChampionship
  • 7 December 2024Morton 0–0 LivingstonChampionship
  • 12 November 2024Livingston 2–1 MortonChallenge Cup
  • 24 August 2024Livingston 1–1 MortonChampionship

Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Livingston a 13.9% chance of the title and Morton 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Livingston a 71.0% chance to finish in the top four: 73.3% after a win, 67.9% after a draw, 62.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 73.3%, 2.3 points higher than before the match.

For Morton the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 41.1% going in: 32.8% after a win, 37.1% after a draw, 43.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 43.1%, 2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Livingston Morton
0.49 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.45
1.67 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 3.04
2.42 Model expected goals (this match) 0.91

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Livingston the highest probability at 65%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.42 expected goals for Livingston against 0.91 for Morton. Livingston's attack/defence rating is 0.49/1.67 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.45/3.04 for Morton.

Livingston carry a model rating of 6.24 against 5.91 for Morton.

How the model reaches 65% for Livingston to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Livingston to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Livingston's ratings add 8 points and Morton's ratings add 12 points, which lands on the published 65%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level45%+1
  4. Livingston's ratings53%+8
  5. Morton's ratings65%+12

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.