Partick
vs
Inverness CT
Championship prediction & result
Final score: Partick 3-2 Inverness CT.
Before kick-off the model made it 56% Partick, 24% draw, 20% Inverness CT — fair odds of 1.79, 4.17 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Partick 2.04, Inverness CT 1.04.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
More Scottish Championship predictions
Model insights: Partick vs Inverness CT
Has the model earned this number?
Partick at 56%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Form going into Partick vs Inverness CT
Partick
Championship
- W1-0away to Queen's Park7 November 2026
- L2-3Morton31 October 2026
- W3-0Stenhousemuir24 October 2026
- D1-1away to Dunfermline20 October 2026
Inverness CT
Championship
- D1-1Livingston7 November 2026
- L1-5away to Dunfermline31 October 2026
- W2-0away to Raith Rovers24 October 2026
- W2-0Arbroath17 October 2026
What these results say
- Partick scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Inverness CT scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Inverness CT had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Scotland Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Partick | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 21 | 9 | +12 | 31 |
| 6 | Inverness CT | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Partick vs Inverness CT
- 21 August 2026Inverness CT 1–1 PartickChampionship
- 13 January 2026Partick 3–3 Inverness CTChallenge Cup
- 30 March 2024Partick 1–0 Inverness CTChampionship
- 17 February 2024Inverness CT 3–3 PartickChampionship
- 23 December 2023Partick 1–1 Inverness CTChampionship
- 7 October 2023Inverness CT 0–0 PartickChampionship
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Partick a 50.7% chance of the title and Inverness CT 1.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Partick a 44.8% chance to finish top of the regular season: 48.7% after a win, 40.6% after a draw, 35.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 48.7%, 3.9 points higher than before the match.
For Inverness CT the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 34.3% going in: 44.5% after a win, 36.8% after a draw, 29.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 29.4%, 4.9 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Partick the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Partick against 1.04 for Inverness CT. Partick's attack/defence rating is 0.5/1.63 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/2.51 for Inverness CT.
How the model reaches 56% for Partick to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Partick to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Partick's ratings add 4 points and Inverness CT's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 56%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level45%+1
- Partick's ratings49%+4
- Inverness CT's ratings56%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.