6 November 2026, 16:30 UTC

Nafta vs Olimpija Ljubljana 1. SNL prediction & result

Lendava
Referee: A. Matkovic
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Nafta 1-1 Olimpija Ljubljana.

Before kick-off the model made it 31% Nafta, 30% draw, 39% Olimpija Ljubljana — fair odds of 3.23, 3.33 and 2.56.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Olimpija Ljubljana at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Nafta3%Draw94%Olimpija Ljubljana3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

38'
⚽I. Tuciassist: D. Kojic
49'
🔁J. Urbancicout: J. Govea
⚽A. Marosaassist: M. Vidnyanszky
62'
65'
🔁I. Tuciout: A. Marin
🔁M. Vidnyanszkyout: M. Vallejo
71'
🔁J. Zoricaout: A. Jasaragic
71'
81'
🔁J. Gorencout: D. Kobouri
81'
🔁D. Mitrovskiout: F. Rose
🔁S. Omraniout: L. Pihler
81'
A. Pihler
87'

Form going into Nafta vs Olimpija Ljubljana

Nafta

1. SNL

  • L0-4away to Celje1 November 2026
  • D0-0Aluminij28 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Mura17 October 2026
  • W1-0Bravo11 October 2026

Olimpija Ljubljana

1. SNL

  • W1-0away to Maribor31 October 2026
  • D1-1Celje28 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Aluminij16 October 2026
  • D3-3Mura10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Nafta failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Nafta failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Nafta kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Olimpija Ljubljana went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Olimpija Ljubljana scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Olimpija Ljubljana had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

1. SNL table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Nafta155461921-219
4Olimpija Ljubljana156541713+423

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Nafta vs Olimpija Ljubljana

  • 21 August 2026Olimpija Ljubljana 1–0 Nafta1. SNL
  • 12 April 2025Nafta 1–1 Olimpija Ljubljana1. SNL
  • 16 February 2025Olimpija Ljubljana 3–0 Nafta1. SNL
  • 19 October 2024Nafta 0–1 Olimpija Ljubljana1. SNL
  • 5 August 2024Olimpija Ljubljana 2–0 Nafta1. SNL
  • 8 March 2023Nafta 1–3 Olimpija LjubljanaCup

The result against the call

Nafta and Olimpija Ljubljana drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Olimpija Ljubljana at 39% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: I. Tuci 38' for Olimpija Ljubljana, A. Marosa 62' for Nafta.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Nafta a 7.8% chance to finish in the top four: 10.7% after a win, 7.0% after a draw, 4.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 7.0%, 0.8 points lower than before the match.

For Olimpija Ljubljana the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 74.0% going in: 79.4% after a win, 73.0% after a draw, 68.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 73.0%, 1 points lower than before the match.

Read from our 1. SNL season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Nafta v Olimpija Ljubljana has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 36% / 31% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 31% / 30% / 39%: the biggest move is Olimpija Ljubljana's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. Nafta win31%▼ −5
  2. Draw30%▼ −1
  3. Olimpija Ljubljana win39%▲ +6

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.