7 November 2026, 14:00 UTC

Koper vs Mura 1. SNL prediction & result

Bonifika, Koper
Referee: D. Halilovic
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Koper 1-1 Mura.

Before kick-off the model made it 71% Koper, 18% draw, 11% Mura — fair odds of 1.41, 5.56 and 9.09.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Koper at 71%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Koper0%Draw8%Mura92%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

2'
A. Zalaznik
G. Agyemang
8'
10'
⚽N. Kouterassist: A. Zalaznik
🔁N. Simonout: C. Diakite
46'
🔁D. Pejicicout: F. Tomek
46'
🔁D. Bangalyout: I. Matondo
46'
49'
N. Kouter
58'
F. Jevsenak
64'
L. Kitin
66'
🔁K. Kurtovicout: B. Dimitrov
67'
L. Bobicanec
🔁K. Manseriout: L. Oluwaseun
71'
78'
🔁L. Bobicanecout: S. Butic
78'
🔁A. Zalaznikout: Z. Petrovic
B. Negouai
80'
🔁L. Gucekout: R. Beric
81'
90'
🔁F. Jevsenakout: F. Sana
90'
🔁N. Kouterout: B. Proleta
⚽R. Bericassist: F. Tomek
90+3'

Line-ups

Koper
  • 1L. Bas
  • 47A. Roncal
  • 29L. Gucek
  • 69B. Negouai
  • 18G. Agyemang
  • 99K. Manseri
  • 72J. Ilicic
  • 11N. Simon
  • 79D. Pejicic
  • 9B. Irabor
  • 25D. Bangaly
Substitutes
  • 33A. Marinic
  • 3F. Hartherz
  • 5F. Backulja
  • 2M. Boune
  • 4L. Stulac
  • 6F. Tomek
  • 14A. Cikotic
  • 22C. Diakite
  • 45I. Matondo
Coach: Milan Andjelkovic
Mura
  • 52M. Dajcar
  • 3A. Zeljkovic
  • 56M. Matic
  • 24L. Kitin
  • 77D. Oroian
  • 88A. Korosec
  • 10N. Kouter
  • 6F. Jevsenak
  • 18A. Zalaznik
  • 8L. Bobicanec
  • 30K. Kurtovic
Substitutes
  • 33Z. Fermisek
  • 81N. Antonic
  • 2F. Sana
  • 17K. Trdin
  • 21Z. Petrovic
  • 26B. Proleta
  • 49P. Pfeifer
  • 47S. Butic
  • 71B. Dimitrov
Coach: Mitja Morec

Form going into Koper vs Mura

Koper

1. SNL

  • W2-1away to Bravo2 November 2026
  • W4-0Maribor27 October 2026
  • W5-0Brinje-Grosuplje18 October 2026
  • D3-3away to Radomlje10 October 2026

Mura

1. SNL

  • D0-0Brinje-Grosuplje1 November 2026
  • D1-1away to Radomlje27 October 2026
  • D0-0Nafta17 October 2026
  • D3-3away to Olimpija Ljubljana10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Koper went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Koper scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Koper had three goals or more.
  • Mura went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Mura did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Mura had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

1. SNL table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Koper158522613+1329
9Mura152851526-1114

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Koper vs Mura

  • 22 August 2026Mura 0–1 Koper1. SNL
  • 3 May 2026Mura 0–1 Koper1. SNL
  • 1 March 2026Koper 3–0 Mura1. SNL
  • 7 November 2025Mura 3–2 Koper1. SNL
  • 23 August 2025Koper 2–1 Mura1. SNL
  • 25 May 2025Mura 1–3 Koper1. SNL

The result against the call

Koper and Mura drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Koper at 71% and given a draw 18%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 6 matches like this one. The goals: N. Kouter 10' for Mura, R. Beric 90+3' for Koper.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Koper a 50.6% chance to finish top of the regular season: 52.6% after a win, 46.2% after a draw, 40.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 46.2%, 4.4 points lower than before the match.

For Mura the question was the chance to finish in the bottom one, 19.5% going in: 11.8% after a win, 18.0% after a draw, 20.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 18.0%, 1.5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our 1. SNL season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Koper v Mura has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 68% / 20% / 12% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 71% / 18% / 11%: the biggest move is Koper's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Koper win71%▲ +3
  2. Draw18%▼ −2
  3. Mura win11%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.