7 November 2026, 17:00 UTC

Bravo vs Maribor 1. SNL prediction & result

Stadion Stozice, Ljubljana
Referee: M. Tozan
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Bravo 2-1 Maribor.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Bravo, 29% draw, 33% Maribor — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Bravo at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Bravo96%Draw4%Maribor0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

D. Omoregie
23'
⚽M. Malensek (pen)
41'
⚽M. Malensek
45+1'
46'
🔁C. Bumbicout: V. Koderman
46'
🔁Z. Repasout: D. Vizinger
46'
🔁M. Spanringout: B. Feta
65'
⚽I. Tshipamba (pen)
🔁N. Kouassiout: J. Ficko
69'
🔁M. Tucicout: A. Jakupovic
75'
78'
🔁C. Goncalvesout: A. Reghba
81'
V. Koderman
81'
🔁N. Viherout: J. Seri
84'
J. Seri
I. Halilou
89'

Line-ups

Bravo
  • 77M. Rozman
  • 20N. Kouassi
  • 68M. Nzuzi
  • 5I. Halilou
  • 28M. Olanrewaju
  • 24G. Jovan
  • 7D. Omoregie
  • 8S. Nuhanovic
  • 17J. Arinze
  • 40M. Malensek
  • 33M. Tucic
Substitutes
  • 22B. Maticic
  • 95M. Fogec
  • 6J. Ficko
  • 35R. Kopatin
  • 9A. Jakupovic
  • 48A. Celik
  • 75A. Pecar
Coach: Ales Arnol
Maribor
  • 98T. Gardies
  • 3C. Bumbic
  • 4N. Viher
  • 6B. Mbondo
  • 7T. Cipot
  • 8C. Goncalves
  • 10Z. Repas
  • 25M. Blazic
  • 55M. Spanring
  • 70I. Tshipamba
  • 79L. Zahovic
Substitutes
  • 43T. Handanovic
  • 30P. Stojanovic
  • 50L. Vidmar
  • 24A. Zabukovec
  • 21V. Koderman
  • 38N. Osterc
  • 5Z. Jevsenak
  • 14J. Seri
  • 15E. Taylor
Coach: Darko Milanic

Form going into Bravo vs Maribor

Bravo

1. SNL

  • L1-2Koper2 November 2026
  • D0-0away to Brinje-Grosuplje29 October 2026
  • D2-2Radomlje17 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Nafta11 October 2026

Maribor

1. SNL

  • L0-1Olimpija Ljubljana31 October 2026
  • L0-4away to Koper27 October 2026
  • D0-0Celje18 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Brinje-Grosuplje11 October 2026

What these results say

  • Bravo did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Bravo conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Maribor failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Maribor failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Maribor conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

1. SNL table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Bravo156541716+123
2Maribor156632216+624

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Bravo vs Maribor

  • 23 August 2026Maribor 3–1 Bravo1. SNL
  • 26 April 2026Bravo 3–0 Maribor1. SNL
  • 22 February 2026Maribor 2–0 Bravo1. SNL
  • 1 November 2025Bravo 2–3 Maribor1. SNL
  • 16 August 2025Maribor 3–3 Bravo1. SNL
  • 13 April 2025Bravo 1–1 Maribor1. SNL

The result against the call

Bravo beat Maribor 2–1. The model had made a win for Bravo its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: M. Malensek (penalty) 41' for Bravo, M. Malensek 45+1' for Bravo, I. Tshipamba (penalty) 65' for Maribor.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Bravo a 24.0% chance to finish in the top four: 29.1% after a win, 21.9% after a draw, 18.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 29.1%, 5.1 points higher than before the match.

For Maribor the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 79.4% going in: 84.9% after a win, 79.4% after a draw, 75.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 75.3%, 4.1 points lower than before the match.

Read from our 1. SNL season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Bravo v Maribor has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 35% / 29% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 38% / 29% / 33%: the biggest move is Bravo's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Bravo win38%▲ +3
  2. Draw29%=
  3. Maribor win33%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.