7 November 2026, 12:55 UTC

Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba Pro League prediction & result

Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium, Madinat Zayed
Full time1 – 3

Final score: Al-Dhafra 1-3 Al-Ittihad Kalba.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Al-Dhafra, 26% draw, 35% Al-Ittihad Kalba — fair odds of 2.56, 3.85 and 2.86.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Al-Dhafra at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Al-Dhafra0%Draw3%Al-Ittihad Kalba97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Sory Kabaassist: Sory Kaba
20'
•Sory Kaba
24'
•Karim El Berkaoui
28'
Karim El Berkaoui
29'
45+5'
Alejandro Vergaz
Rostand Delord Menpweh Djooh
45+5'
50'
⚽Benjamin Tetteh (pen)
Patrice Carteron
51'
52'
⚽Ahmad Nourollahiassist: Rejan Alivoda
62'
🔁Adyson do Nascimento Soaresout: Juninho
62'
🔁Bader Abaelazizout: Ibrahim Cissé
66'
Koray Günter
72'
Antônio Fialho de Carvalho Neto
76'
🔁Antônio Fialho de Carvalho Netoout: Ali Hassan Salmin
🔁Mohamed Ibrahim Mohamed Alhammadiout: Rayan Yaslam
83'
🔁Daraman Komariout: Youssef Al-Marzooqi
83'
88'
🔁Ahmad Nourollahiout: Carlos Alberto
88'
🔁Khalid Ali Aldarmakiout: Abdul Salam Mohammed
🔁Mohamed El Khalouiout: Rodriguinho
90'
90+5'
⚽Juninhoassist: Benjamin Tetteh

Match stats — Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba

41%Possession59%
11Shots12
3On target4
6Corners6
0.97xG1.59

Goals against chances

Al-Dhafra1 from 0.97 xGabout what the chances were worth
Al-Ittihad Kalba3 from 1.59 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Al-Dhafra 4-4-2
  • 44A. Al SayedG
  • 15Abdullah Al KarbiD
  • 3D. KoumareD
  • 33SamirD
  • 6E. NoumonviD
  • 16M. AlhammadiM
  • 88D. MendyM
  • 21R. DjoohM
  • 11M. El KhalouiM
  • 9S. KabaF
  • 95Karim El BerkaouiF
Substitutes
  • 8Z. MohammedM
  • 17Eisa HoutiG
  • 77A. Ben FajriaD
  • 7MarcelinhoF
  • 99ArielsonF
  • 20L. AmesimekuD
  • 4SerafimD
  • 80RodriguinhoF
  • 5Mansor Al HarbiM
Coach: P. Carteron
Al-Ittihad Kalba 4-4-2
  • 33Sultan Al MantheriG
  • 6R. AlivodaD
  • 22K. GünterD
  • 19Alejandro VergazD
  • 16Bader NasserD
  • 77AdysonM
  • 24Khalid Al DarmakiM
  • 41NetoM
  • 10A. NoorollahiM
  • 7S. GhoddosF
  • 30B. TettehF
Substitutes
  • 96Marwan FahadD
  • 55Hamad AlmansooriG
  • 42Ahmed AbunamousF
  • 5Ali SalminM
  • 94JuninhoM
  • 26I. CisséD
  • 99Carlos AlbertoF
  • 27Yaser Al BlooshiF
  • 34Yousif Ali AlmheiriD
Coach: Víctor Sánchez

Form going into Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba

Al-Dhafra

Pro League

  • W5-1Dubai United16 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Hatta SC11 September 2026
  • L0-1Al Wahda FC6 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Khorfakkan29 August 2026

Al-Ittihad Kalba

Pro League

  • D2-2Al-Jazira18 October 2026
  • W3-2away to Ajman11 September 2026
  • L0-2Al Ain4 September 2026
  • L1-4away to Dubai United28 August 2026

What these results say

  • Al-Dhafra conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Al-Ittihad Kalba conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Al-Ittihad Kalba failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Al-Ittihad Kalba scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

United Arab Emirates Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Al-Dhafra7205913-46
9Al-Ittihad Kalba72231116-58

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba

  • 26 February 2026Al-Ittihad Kalba 1–1 Al-DhafraPro League
  • 1 November 2025Al-Dhafra 3–0 Al-Ittihad KalbaPro League
  • 10 February 2023Al-Dhafra 0–2 Al-Ittihad KalbaPro League
  • 16 September 2022Al-Ittihad Kalba 2–0 Al-DhafraPro League
  • 11 March 2022Al-Ittihad Kalba 2–2 Al-DhafraPro League
  • 28 September 2021Al-Dhafra 1–1 Al-Ittihad KalbaPro League

Leading scorers: Al-Dhafra and Al-Ittihad Kalba

Al-Dhafra

GoalsAssists

  • S. Kaba31

Al-Ittihad Kalba

GoalsAssists

  • B. Tetteh33
  • A. Noorollahi20

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Al-Ittihad Kalba won 3–1 at Al-Dhafra. The model had leaned towards a win for Al-Dhafra at 39% and given a win for Al-Ittihad Kalba 35%. The goals: Sory Kaba 20' for Al-Dhafra, Benjamin Tetteh (penalty) 50' for Al-Ittihad Kalba, Ahmad Nourollahi 52' for Al-Ittihad Kalba, Juninho 90+5' for Al-Ittihad Kalba. Sent off: Karim El Berkaoui (Al-Dhafra) 29'. On expected goals it finished 0.97–1.59.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Al-Dhafra a 20.3% chance to finish in the bottom two: 10.2% after a win, 20.9% after a draw, 29.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 29.3%, 9 points higher than before the match.

For Al-Ittihad Kalba the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 17.4% going in: 8.9% after a win, 16.7% after a draw, 24.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 8.9%, 8.5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.