Barcelona vs Alaves La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Barcelona 6-1 Alaves.
Before kick-off the model made it 74% Barcelona, 16% draw, 10% Alaves — fair odds of 1.35, 6.25 and 10.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Barcelona at 74%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Barcelona vs Alaves
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Joan GarcíaG
- 4B. FarinasD
- 5Pau Cubarsí ParedesD
- 21F. de JongD
- 2João CanceloD
- 7FermínM
- 16RodriM
- 8PedriM
- 10Lamine YamalF
- 11RaphinhaF
- 14K. AdeyemiF
- 3Alejandro BaldeD
- 29H. AbdelkarimF
- 22Marc BernalM
- 41A. CamposD
- 9Gabriel JesusF
- 6GaviM
- 17A. GordonF
- 25D. LivakovićG
- 18Gerard MartínD
- 1SiveraG
- 17JonnyD
- 14N. TenagliaD
- 16V. KoskiD
- 3YusiD
- 7Angel PérezM
- 23C. BenavídezM
- 6GuevaraM
- 4Denis SuárezM
- 21A. RebbachM
- 15L. BoyéF
- 2N. ValentiniD
- 22Miguel RodríguezF
- 13A. GiménezG
- 27X. OlaizD
- 12Hugo NovoaF
- 11Toni MartínezF
- 20Aitor MañasF
- 19Pablo IbáñezM
- 9M. DíazF
Form going into Barcelona vs Alaves
Barcelona
La Liga
- L1-2Real Madrid25 October 2026
- W5-2away to Real Betis17 October 2026
- W3-0Getafe10 October 2026
Alaves
La Liga
- D1-1Malaga23 October 2026
- L1-2away to Celta Vigo18 October 2026
- L1-2Atletico Madrid10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 12 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 48 | 13 | +35 | 33 |
| 12 | Alaves | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Alaves vs Barcelona
Alaves and Barcelona have met 7 times in the records we hold, Barcelona has won 6 of them to Alaves's 1.
The record
Barcelona won the last one 6–1 on 31 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves | 1 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 18 |
| Barcelona | 6 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 5 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 23 goals, an average of 3.29 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 31 Oct 2026
La LigaBarcelona 6–1 Alaves - 13 May 2026
La LigaAlaves 1–0 Barcelona - 29 Nov 2025
La LigaBarcelona 3–1 Alaves - 2 Feb 2025
La LigaBarcelona 1–0 Alaves - 6 Oct 2024
La LigaAlaves 0–3 Barcelona - 3 Feb 2024
La LigaAlaves 1–3 Barcelona - 12 Nov 2023
La LigaBarcelona 2–1 Alaves
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Barcelona's attack rates 100% above Alaves', and Barcelona concede 30% fewer than Alaves. That gives Barcelona the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Barcelona and Alaves
Barcelona
GoalsAssists
- Raphinha153
- Lamine Yamal108
- Fermín75
Alaves
GoalsAssists
- L. Boyé50
- M. Díaz44
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Barcelona beat Alaves 6–1. The model had made a win for Barcelona its most likely outcome, at 74%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Raphael Dias Belloli 8' for Barcelona, Fermín López 23' for Barcelona, Raphael Dias Belloli 41' for Barcelona, Lamine Yamal 45+1' for Barcelona, Lamine Yamal 64' for Barcelona, Anthony Gordon 81' for Barcelona, Mariano Díaz 84' for Alaves. On expected goals it finished 3.30–0.78.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Barcelona a 54.8% chance to win the league: 56.3% after a win, 50.8% after a draw, 41.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 56.3%, 1.5 points higher than before the match.
For Alaves the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 9.7% going in: 5.1% after a win, 9.6% after a draw, 10.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 10.0%.
Read from our La Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.