Real Betis vs Malaga La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Real Betis 2-1 Malaga.
Before kick-off the model made it 70% Real Betis, 19% draw, 11% Malaga — fair odds of 1.43, 5.26 and 9.09.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Real Betis at 70%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Real Betis vs Malaga
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Álvaro VallésG
- 2Héctor BellerínD
- 5Marc BartraD
- 4NatanD
- 11Fran GarcíaD
- 8Pablo FornalsM
- 21Marc RocaM
- 17Rodrigo RiquelmeM
- 22IscoM
- 10A. EzzalzouliM
- 19T. ParrottF
- 27J. A. MoranteF
- 20G. Lo CelsoM
- 24Aitor RuibalF
- 12Ángel OrtizD
- 7AntonyF
- 25Dani CeballosM
- 13Diego CondeG
- 18N. DeossaM
- 15Álvaro FidalgoM
- 1Alfonso HerreroG
- 3PugaD
- 20Fernando CaleroD
- 4Einar GalileaD
- 31RafitaD
- 6Ramón EnríquezM
- 10David LarrubiaM
- 8Carlos DotorM
- 22Dani LorenzoM
- 39Adam Aznou Ben CheikhM
- 21Adrián Niño HerediaF
- 7H. AbaidaF
- 25Juan BerrocalD
- 2J. CajusteM
- 30Andrés CéspedesG
- 32J. FernandezF
- 17Eneko JauregiF
- 13Carlos LópezG
- 23Izan MerinoM
- 5Álex PastorD
Form going into Real Betis vs Malaga
Real Betis
La Liga
- D0-0away to Celta Vigo25 October 2026
- L2-5Barcelona17 October 2026
- W5-2Osasuna11 October 2026
Malaga
La Liga
- D1-1away to Alaves23 October 2026
- L2-5Real Sociedad18 October 2026
- D1-1Espanyol9 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Real Betis | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 15 | +5 | 26 |
| 20 | Malaga | 12 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 23 | -14 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Malaga vs Real Betis
Malaga and Real Betis have met 7 times in the records we hold, Real Betis has won 5 of them to Malaga's 2.
The record
Real Betis won the last one 2–1 on 31 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malaga | 2 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 10 |
| Real Betis | 5 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 7 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 17 goals, an average of 2.43 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 31 Oct 2026
La LigaReal Betis 2–1 Malaga - 9 Aug 2025
Friendlies ClubsMalaga 3–1 Real Betis - 30 Apr 2018
La LigaReal Betis 2–1 Malaga - 18 Dec 2017
La LigaMalaga 0–2 Real Betis - 28 Feb 2017
La LigaMalaga 1–2 Real Betis - 23 Sep 2016
La LigaReal Betis 1–0 Malaga - 19 Mar 2016
La LigaReal Betis 0–1 Malaga
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Real Betis' attack rates 90% above Malaga's, and Real Betis concede 31% fewer than Malaga. That gives Real Betis the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Malaga | 0.67 | 1.24 |
| Real Betis | 1.27 | 0.85 |
Leading scorers: Real Betis and Malaga
Real Betis
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 20 league goals as a side.
Malaga
GoalsAssists
- Adrián Niño Heredia51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Real Betis beat Malaga 2–1. The model had made a win for Real Betis its most likely outcome, at 70%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Marc Bartra 38' for Real Betis, Pablo Fornals 45+2' for Real Betis, Adrian Nino 68' for Malaga. On expected goals it finished 1.45–1.21.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Real Betis a 50.4% chance to finish in the top four: 52.4% after a win, 45.4% after a draw, 42.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 52.4%, 2 points higher than before the match.
For Malaga the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 73.2% going in: 64.9% after a win, 70.6% after a draw, 75.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 75.1%, 1.9 points higher than before the match.
Read from our La Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Real Betis v Malaga has moved
First published on 17 Oct at 68% / 21% / 11% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 70% / 19% / 11%: the biggest move is Real Betis's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Real Betis win70%▲ +2
- Draw19%▼ −2
- Malaga win11%=
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.