Eibar vs Almeria Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Eibar 1-1 Almeria.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Eibar, 27% draw, 32% Almeria — fair odds of 2.44, 3.70 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Eibar at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Eibar vs Almeria
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13Jon MikelG
- 22Álvaro RodríguezD
- 5Peru NolaskoainD
- 23Anaitz ArbillaD
- 24Juan BernatD
- 8Ander MadariagaM
- 30Aleix GarridoM
- 7Malcom AduM
- 21Iván GilM
- 10Jon GuruzetaM
- 9Jon BautistaF
- 15Jair AmadorD
- 17PejiñoF
- 2Sergio CuberoD
- 3Imanol García de AlbénizD
- 1Luis LópezG
- 11Jon MagunazelaiaM
- 20Javi MartónF
- 28Lucas NuñezM
- 14OlaetxeaM
- 1Andrés FernándezG
- 2Marcos LunaD
- 5Jorge PulidoD
- 18F. BoniniD
- 3Álex MuñozD
- 29S. DžodićM
- 14Javi MuñozM
- 33Quim JunyentM
- 11Sergio ArribasM
- 17B. CipengaM
- 24Miguel de la FuenteF
- 23Adri EmbarbaF
- 8GuiM
- 21ChumiD
- 12Léo BaptistãoF
- 9ThalysF
- 13Fernando MartínezG
- 7Jon MorcilloF
- 20Álex SolaF
- 6Mikel VesgaM
Form going into Eibar vs Almeria
Eibar
Segunda División
- L0-2away to Cordoba24 October 2026
- D1-1Mallorca17 October 2026
- L1-3away to Oviedo12 October 2026
- W3-1away to Albacete3 October 2026
Almeria
Segunda División
- D2-2Oviedo24 October 2026
- W4-2away to Real Sociedad II17 October 2026
What these results say
- Eibar conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Eibar failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Eibar scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Eibar | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 14 | +7 | 23 |
| 1 | Almeria | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 11 | +15 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Eibar vs Almeria
- 25 January 2026Eibar 1–0 AlmeriaSegunda División
- 1 November 2025Almeria 3–1 EibarSegunda División
- 7 March 2025Eibar 1–0 AlmeriaSegunda División
- 22 September 2024Almeria 2–2 EibarSegunda División
- 24 January 2022Almeria 0–2 EibarSegunda División
- 15 October 2021Eibar 1–0 AlmeriaSegunda División
Leading scorers: Eibar and Almeria
Eibar
GoalsAssists
- Iván Gil41
Almeria
GoalsAssists
- Miguel de la Fuente91
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Eibar and Almeria drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Eibar at 41% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Quim junyent 18' for Almeria, Pejiño 87' for Eibar. On expected goals it finished 1.06–1.34.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Eibar a 20.6% chance to finish in the top two: 24.4% after a win, 18.5% after a draw, 14.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 18.5%, 2.1 points lower than before the match.
For Almeria the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 38.5% going in: 45.7% after a win, 37.6% after a draw, 33.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 37.6%, 0.9 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Segunda División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.