Real Sociedad II vs Girona Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Real Sociedad II 1-0 Girona.
Before kick-off the model made it 27% Real Sociedad II, 25% draw, 48% Girona — fair odds of 3.70, 4.00 and 2.08.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Girona at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Real Sociedad II vs Girona
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 32Lander OlasagastiG
- 22RupérezD
- 15I. CalderonD
- 5K. KitaD
- 3Jon BaldaD
- 7Dani DíazM
- 14Tomás CarbonellM
- 6A. LebarbierM
- 11Alex GarciaM
- 10Arkaitz MariezkurrenaF
- 19Javier SoroetaF
- 23Unax AgoteD
- 34Andrews AdjabengF
- 8Ibai AguirreM
- 17Lander AstiazaránF
- 24A. UnaxD
- 18Gorka CarreraF
- 21Jon EceizabarrenaM
- 13T. FolgadoG
- 2Jon GarroD
- 13P. GazzanigaG
- 3Mateu MoreyD
- 5David LópezD
- 38Holmes ZamoranoD
- 11Álex MorenoD
- 22Y. AsprillaM
- 24I. GonzalezM
- 8Fran BeltránM
- 23Carles PérezM
- 19V. VanatF
- 30Unai HernándezF
- 29L. KouroumaM
- 25V. KrapyvtsovG
- 33M. FurtadoD
- 14Iván MoranteM
- 2A. MuminD
- 10PortuF
- 1Sergi PuigG
- 15Oleksandr PishchurF
- 9Abel RuizF
Form going into Real Sociedad II vs Girona
Real Sociedad II
Segunda División
- L0-1away to Las Palmas24 October 2026
- L2-4Almeria17 October 2026
Girona
Segunda División
- W5-1Celta de Vigo II24 October 2026
- W2-0FC Andorra18 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Real Sociedad II | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 13 |
| 3 | Girona | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 24 | 13 | +11 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Real Sociedad II vs Girona
- 18 April 2022Girona 2–0 Real Sociedad IISegunda División
- 22 November 2021Real Sociedad II 1–2 GironaSegunda División
Leading scorers: Real Sociedad II and Girona
Real Sociedad II
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
Girona
GoalsAssists
- V. Vanat52
- Y. Asprilla51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Real Sociedad II beat Girona 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Girona at 48% and given a win for Real Sociedad II 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: Lander Astiazarán 86' for Real Sociedad II. Sent off: David López Silva (Girona) 15'. On expected goals it finished 1.45–0.58.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Real Sociedad II a 35.2% chance to finish in the bottom four: 28.3% after a win, 34.3% after a draw, 38.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 28.3%, 6.9 points lower than before the match.
For Girona the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 32.6% going in: 36.3% after a win, 30.5% after a draw, 26.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 26.8%, 5.8 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Segunda División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Real Sociedad II v Girona has moved
First published on 18 Oct at 28% / 26% / 46% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 27% / 25% / 48%: the biggest move is Girona's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Real Sociedad II win27%▼ −1
- Draw25%▼ −1
- Girona win48%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.