VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: VfB Stuttgart 2-3 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Before kick-off the model made it 61% VfB Stuttgart, 21% draw, 18% Borussia Mönchengladbach — fair odds of 1.64, 4.76 and 5.56.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
VfB Stuttgart at 61%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 41D. SeimenG
- 22L. AssignonD
- 29Finn JeltschD
- 3R. HendriksD
- 7M. MittelstädtD
- 6A. StillerM
- 16A. KarazorM
- 44L. SauerM
- 17D. PejčinovićM
- 10C. FührichM
- 9E. DemirovićF
- 2A. Al DakhilD
- 1F. BredlowG
- 24J. ChabotD
- 18J. LewelingF
- 21G. PrömelM
- 47Y. SpaltD
- 20L. StergiouD
- 26D. UndavF
- 11B. El KhannoussM
- 1M. NicolasG
- 14D. HashiokaD
- 16P. SanderD
- 2F. ChiarodiaD
- 29J. ScallyM
- 47Z. UnoM
- 10F. NeuhausM
- 26L. UllrichM
- 38H. BolinM
- 36W. MohyaM
- 18S. MachinoF
- 7K. StögerM
- 48Lion SchweersD
- 34M. NguefackM
- 22Y. KonoplyaD
- 20D. HeroldD
- 25R. HackM
- 39I. M. DanfaF
- 33D. BatzG
- 35J. UwakhonyeF
Form going into VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach
VfB Stuttgart
Bundesliga
- L0-1away to Hamburger SV17 October 2026
- W2-0away to SC Paderborn 0710 October 2026
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Bundesliga
- L1-21899 Hoffenheim18 October 2026
- L1-2away to 1. FC Köln11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | VfB Stuttgart | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 12 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 25 | -13 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart
Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart have met 7 times in the records we hold, VfB Stuttgart has won 4 of them to Borussia Mönchengladbach's 3.
The record
Borussia Mönchengladbach won the last one 3–2 on 23 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 15 |
| VfB Stuttgart | 4 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 9 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 24 goals, an average of 3.43 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 23 Oct 2026
BundesligaVfB Stuttgart 2–3 Borussia Mönchengladbach - 25 Jan 2026
BundesligaBorussia Mönchengladbach 0–3 VfB Stuttgart - 30 Aug 2025
BundesligaVfB Stuttgart 1–0 Borussia Mönchengladbach - 1 Feb 2025
BundesligaVfB Stuttgart 1–2 Borussia Mönchengladbach - 14 Sep 2024
BundesligaBorussia Mönchengladbach 1–3 VfB Stuttgart - 18 May 2024
BundesligaVfB Stuttgart 4–0 Borussia Mönchengladbach - 14 Jan 2024
BundesligaBorussia Mönchengladbach 3–1 VfB Stuttgart
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, VfB Stuttgart's attack rates 39% above Borussia Mönchengladbach's, and VfB Stuttgart concede 22% fewer than Borussia Mönchengladbach. That gives VfB Stuttgart the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | 0.82 | 1.20 |
| VfB Stuttgart | 1.14 | 0.93 |
Leading scorers: VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Mönchengladbach
VfB Stuttgart
GoalsAssists
- E. Demirović50
Borussia Mönchengladbach
No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Borussia Mönchengladbach won 3–2 at VfB Stuttgart. The model had leaned towards a win for VfB Stuttgart at 61% and given a win for Borussia Mönchengladbach 18%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 6 matches like this one. The goals: Ermedin Demirović 5' for VfB Stuttgart, Joe Scally 38' for Borussia Mönchengladbach, Shuto Machino 51' for Borussia Mönchengladbach, Wael Mohya 66' for Borussia Mönchengladbach, Ermedin Demirović 83' for VfB Stuttgart. On expected goals it finished 1.60–2.66.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave VfB Stuttgart a 11.6% chance to finish in the top four: 12.6% after a win, 9.8% after a draw, 7.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 7.4%, 4.2 points lower than before the match.
For Borussia Mönchengladbach the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 60.3% going in: 52.2% after a win, 57.6% after a draw, 62.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 52.2%, 8.1 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.