Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Atletico Madrid 1-0 Deportivo La Coruna.
Before kick-off the model made it 63% Atletico Madrid, 22% draw, 15% Deportivo La Coruna — fair odds of 1.59, 4.55 and 6.67.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Atletico Madrid at 63%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13J. OblakG
- 14Marcos LlorenteD
- 18Marc PubillD
- 17D. HanckoD
- 22Álex GrimaldoD
- 8Pablo BarriosM
- 23M. HjulmandM
- 10Álex BaenaM
- 7Lee Kang-InF
- 19J. ÁlvarezF
- 11A. LookmanF
- 4Rodrigo MendozaM
- 30Dani MartÃnezD
- 1J. MussoG
- 16Arnau OrtizF
- 20G. SimeoneF
- 9A. SørlothF
- 3O. VargasM
- 24Robin Le NormandD
- 25Salvador EsquivelG
- 13Leo RománG
- 11David MellaD
- 2Adrià AltiD
- 20J. GiménezD
- 15Miguel LoureiroD
- 12G. QuagliataD
- 21Mario SorianoM
- 16L. AmatucciM
- 8Diego VillaresM
- 32B. NsongoF
- 10PekeF
- 3Arnau ComasD
- 19Luismi CruzF
- 17AngeliñoD
- 25Álvaro FernándezG
- 18Jonathan Asp JensenM
- 35ruben lopezM
- 23Ximo NavarroD
- 4L. NoubiD
- 14Riki RodríguezM
Form going into Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna
Atletico Madrid
La Liga
- W1-0away to Espanyol17 October 2026
- W2-1away to Alaves10 October 2026
Deportivo La Coruna
La Liga
- D1-1Levante16 October 2026
- L2-3away to Real Sociedad11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Atletico Madrid | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 10 | +13 | 28 |
| 9 | Deportivo La Coruna | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna
Atletico Madrid and Deportivo La Coruna have met 7 times in the records we hold, Atletico Madrid has won 6 of them to Deportivo La Coruna's 0, with 1 drawn.
The record
Atletico Madrid won the last one 1–0 on 24 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | 6 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 1 |
| Deportivo La Coruna | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 9 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 10 goals, an average of 1.43 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 24 Oct 2026
La LigaAtletico Madrid 1–0 Deportivo La Coruna - 13 Jan 2026
Copa del ReyDeportivo La Coruna 0–1 Atletico Madrid - 1 Apr 2018
La LigaAtletico Madrid 1–0 Deportivo La Coruna - 4 Nov 2017
La LigaDeportivo La Coruna 0–1 Atletico Madrid - 2 Mar 2017
La LigaDeportivo La Coruna 1–1 Atletico Madrid - 25 Sep 2016
La LigaAtletico Madrid 1–0 Deportivo La Coruna - 12 Mar 2016
La LigaAtletico Madrid 3–0 Deportivo La Coruna
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Atletico Madrid's attack rates 57% above Deportivo La Coruna's, and Atletico Madrid concede 24% fewer than Deportivo La Coruna. That gives Atletico Madrid the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | 1.35 | 0.70 |
| Deportivo La Coruna | 0.86 | 0.92 |
Leading scorers: Atletico Madrid and Deportivo La Coruna
Atletico Madrid
GoalsAssists
- Álex Baena53
- G. Simeone42
Deportivo La Coruna
GoalsAssists
- P. Aubameyang52
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Atletico Madrid beat Deportivo La Coruna 1–0. The model had made a win for Atletico Madrid its most likely outcome, at 63%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goal: Julián Álvarez 48' for Atletico Madrid. On expected goals it finished 1.49–1.73.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Atletico Madrid a 89.0% chance to finish in the top four: 90.5% after a win, 86.6% after a draw, 85.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 90.5%, 1.5 points higher than before the match.
For Deportivo La Coruna the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 8.5% going in: 3.9% after a win, 6.9% after a draw, 9.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 9.1%, 0.6 points higher than before the match.
Read from our La Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Atletico Madrid v Deportivo La Coruna has moved
First published on 10 Oct at 61% / 22% / 17% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 63% / 22% / 15%: the biggest move is Atletico Madrid's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Atletico Madrid win63%▲ +2
- Draw22%=
- Deportivo La Coruna win15%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.